Every headline number carries a confidence interval, and every season's accuracy is on the record. No cherry-picked windows.
| Tier | Accuracy | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| S | 83.5% | 75.8% – 90.1% |
| A+ | 75.2% | 69.2% – 80.8% |
| A | 67.9% | 58.7% – 76.1% |
| B | 65.7% | 62.5% – 68.8% |
| C | 57.9% | 53.0% – 62.5% |
The raw ensemble optimizes which side to pick, not the exact win probability. The pick is a hard 3-model vote while this number is the mean of three probabilities, so the mid buckets win a few points more often than stated (underconfident, not wrong). The confidence we display on picks corrects this with a per-season Platt layer (fit on prior seasons only, clamped so it never flips the pick); this chart shows the raw model underneath. The gap column shows it honestly; whiskers are 95% Wilson intervals.
| Predicted Bucket | Predicted | Actual | Gap | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% – 50% | 48.9% | 55.2% | +6.3% | 67 |
| 50% – 60% | 55.1% | 63.5% | +8.4% | 887 |
| 60% – 70% | 64.3% | 67.9% | +3.6% | 557 |
| 70% – 80% | 73.6% | 76.1% | +2.5% | 176 |
| 80% – 90% | 81.9% | 86.7% | +4.8% | 15 |
| Season | Accuracy |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 67.5% |
| 2021 | 62.7% |
| 2022 | 66.2% |
| 2023 | 64.7% |
| 2024 | 69.5% |
| 2025 | 68.3% |
| 2026 | 59.8% |