WE NEVER PUNT.

WHAT THIS IS

NoPunt is a predictive analytics platform for NFL games. We publish tier-graded picks for every game on the schedule, every week, before kickoff. When the game ends, the result is logged whether we won or lost. The full ledger is public.

This is not a tout service. We don’t sell locks. We don’t promise guaranteed winners. We run a model, show you the output, and let the record speak.

THE MODEL

The model is trained on NFL play-by-play from 2019 on; graded predictions start in 2020. It runs on 24 engineered features: exponentially-weighted EPA splits, an Elo differential, venue-specific home field, rest and bye structure, divisional and early-season flags, QB EPA and experience differentials, injury-weighted availability, and penalty, sack and pass-rate tendencies. The market price is not one of them. The spread is compared against the model’s output after the pick, never fed into it.

The output is a win probability, which we also express as a fair line. Confidence tiers (S, A+, A, B, C) come from the model’s own conviction, its win probability and predicted margin, not from the gap to the market line. For a primer on reading those market numbers, see NFL betting odds explained. Full technical details are on the methodology page.

THE ANALYST

NoPunt is built and run by Noah Owsiany, who holds an M.S. Business Analytics from the University at Buffalo (Top MS Student, UB School of Management). The model, the methodology, and every graded pick are his work.

That is the whole point. Most prediction content hides behind an anonymous algorithm or a made-up persona. NoPunt is one accountable analyst who shows the work, publishes the methodology, and grades every call in public, wins and losses alike. Connect on LinkedIn.

THE RECORD

Six seasons of results, every loss shown publicly, no retroactive edits. Those six seasons are a walk-forward backtest reconstructed in May 2026, for each game the model saw only the weeks before it. Live picks publish before kickoff from Week 1 2026. On top of the straight-up call for every game, the model flags the Edge, the games it would actually bet, for Pro members. The betting model has been a proven, profitable strategy since 2020. (Past results, not financial advice.) Browse the full results ledger or jump to this week’s picks.

THE PHILOSOPHY

Most sports prediction content operates the same way: post winners loudly, delete losers quietly, screenshot the hits, ignore the misses. NoPunt exists because that model is broken.

We publish everything. The 70% confidence pick that lost. The C-tier lean that somehow hit. The full card, not just the highlights. If a prediction model can’t survive public scrutiny of its complete record, it does not deserve your attention.

NOT A TIP SHEET

NoPunt is not a tipster, a handicapper collective, or a Discord full of “guaranteed plays.” It is a model with receipts. The differences:

• Every pick is generated by the same pipeline, not human hunches.
• Every result is logged automatically. We can't selectively delete losses.
• Every pick carries a tier, so you know how sure we are before you decide anything.
• The methodology is public. You can audit how the picks are made.

THE NAME

“We Never Punt.” Always making a call, never hedging. Every game on the board gets a pick and a tier. No “stay away” labels, no dodging tough games. If the model has a lean, you see it.