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LXI
2026 · SUPER BOWL ODDS

2026 SUPER BOWL ODDS

Our model’s Super Bowl favorite is the Bills at 10.9%, while the market favors the Rams. Model title odds vs the book for every team below.

Bills
MODEL FAVORITE
10.9%
MODEL SB ODDS
Rams
MARKET FAVORITE
+475
MARKET PRICE
10,000 SIMULATIONS · MODEL vs MARKET

MODEL vs MARKET · ALL 32 TEAMS

OUR SB% vs THE DE-VIGGED BOOK PRICE
#TEAMMODELMARKETODDSVS MKT
1
Buffalo BillsBUF
10.9%6.9%+1000+3.9
2
Detroit LionsDET
7.3%4.2%+1700+3.1
3
Los Angeles RamsLAR
6.7%13.2%+475-6.6
4
Baltimore RavensBAL
6.3%6.9%+1000-0.6
5
Philadelphia EaglesPHI
6.1%4.5%+1600+1.7
6
Green Bay PackersGB
5.2%4.0%+1800+1.2
7
Denver BroncosDEN
5.1%4.0%+1800+1.1
8
New England PatriotsNE
4.8%4.5%+1600+0.3
9
Kansas City ChiefsKC
4.0%4.8%+1500-0.7
10
Seattle SeahawksSEA
3.9%6.3%+1100-2.5
11
Houston TexansHOU
3.7%4.5%+1600-0.8
12
San Francisco 49ersSF
3.6%4.8%+1500-1.1
13
Jacksonville JaguarsJAX
3.4%2.6%+2800+0.7
14
Indianapolis ColtsIND
3.1%1.4%+5500+1.8
15
Los Angeles ChargersLAC
2.9%4.2%+1700-1.3
16
Chicago BearsCHI
2.9%3.3%+2200-0.5
17
Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB
2.6%1.5%+5000+1.1
18
Minnesota VikingsMIN
2.5%1.9%+4000+0.7
19
Atlanta FalconsATL
2.3%1.0%+7500+1.3
20
Pittsburgh SteelersPIT
2.2%1.5%+5000+0.7
21
Washington CommandersWAS
2.0%1.3%+6000+0.7
22
Cleveland BrownsCLE
1.4%0.4%+20000+1.1
23
New Orleans SaintsNO
1.3%0.9%+8000+0.3
24
Dallas CowboysDAL
1.2%3.6%+2000-2.4
25
Cincinnati BengalsCIN
1.1%3.6%+2000-2.5
26
Miami DolphinsMIA
1.0%0.3%+30000+0.8
27
Arizona CardinalsARI
0.9%0.1%+50000+0.7
28
New York GiantsNYG
0.7%1.1%+6500-0.4
29
Carolina PanthersCAR
0.4%0.9%+8000-0.6
30
Las Vegas RaidersLV
0.2%0.8%+10000-0.5
31
Tennessee TitansTEN
0.2%0.6%+12500-0.4
32
New York JetsNYJ
0.2%0.4%+20000-0.2
“VS MKT” is our model probability minus the de-vigged market probability, in points. Green = we’re higher on that team than the market, red = lower. Analytical context only, not a bet recommendation.

2026 SUPER BOWL · FAQ

Who is the 2026 Super Bowl favorite?
Our model makes the Buffalo Bills the favorite at 10.9% across 10,000 simulations; the betting market's favorite is the Los Angeles Rams. No team clears 15% — a single NFL season is mostly variance.
How do our Super Bowl odds compare to Vegas?
We show the model's title probability next to the de-vigged market price for all 32 teams. The biggest gap where we're higher than the market is the Buffalo Bills (10.9% model vs 6.9% market). This is analytical context, not a bet recommendation.
What are 2026 Super Bowl odds based on?
Model odds come from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the real 2026 schedule. Market odds are current futures prices, de-vigged (normalized) so they're comparable to a probability.
ALL 2026 PROJECTIONSPLAYOFF PICTUREMETHODOLOGY
Model odds from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; market odds are futures prices de-vigged for comparison. In-season odds re-simulate weekly. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.