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Your Real Win Probability

Connect your Sleeper league and see your actual chance to win this week, projected from our player model and scored under your league's exact rules.

SLEEPER
CONNECT IN ONE STEP
10,000
SIMULATIONS PER MATCHUP
YOUR RULES
YOUR LEAGUE'S SCORING
BETA · SLEEPER LEAGUES · POWERED BY NOPUNT PROJECTIONS

WHAT IT DOES

THREE THINGS, EVERY WEEK
Win probability
We project every starter on both rosters, score them under your league's rules, and simulate the matchup 10,000 times. You get a percentage, not a point total you have to interpret.
Roster grade
A rest-of-season grade for your team and each position, measured against what a replacement-level starter in a league your size is worth. It names your weakest starting spot.
Trade analyzer
Put any trade with your opponent on the table and see what each side gains in real value, not in name recognition.

TRY IT ON YOUR LEAGUE

WIN PROBABILITY IS FREE

Read-only. We never ask for a password and we cannot touch your roster. Enter the username you log into Sleeper with and we will pull your leagues, your scoring settings, and this week’s matchup.

WHERE THE NUMBERS COME FROM

NO BLACK BOX

The same weekly player projections that drive our PPR rankings and player props. Each projection carries a mean and a spread, which is what makes a real simulation possible: a 4-point favorite with two boom-or-bust receivers is a very different bet than a 4-point favorite with four steady ones, and a point total cannot tell you that. How the model works.

CONNECT YOUR SLEEPER LEAGUE

Enter your Sleeper username. We read your leagues, scoring, and rosters (no login, read-only) to simulate your Week 1 matchup.

Sleeper only for now. ESPN & Yahoo are coming.