DOGS
UNDERDOG POOL · WEEK 7
NFL UNDERDOG POOL PICKS WEEK 7 2026
Every Week 7underdog with the market’s spread, moneyline, win probability and the points it pays in a dog pool. The market’s numbers, not a bet.
+108
MARKET'S LIKELIEST DOG · TEN
365
TOP PAYOUT · NYG
14
DOGS ON THE BOARD
Updated · Week 7 2026 picks
THE SHORT ANSWER
The market's likeliest Week 7 underdog is the Tennessee Titans at home against the Cleveland Browns: +108, 46% to win once the books' margin is removed.
The biggest payout is the New York Giants at +365, worth 365 points in a payout-scored pool and 19% to win.
2 of this week's 14 underdogs are +200 or longer.
EVERY WEEK 7 UNDERDOG, MARKET’S LIKELIEST FIRST
Sorted by the market’s win probability for the dog. Win % is each book’s moneyline with its margin removed (additive), averaged across books. Payout is the profit on a 100 stake at the median moneyline, the points a payout-scored pool awards. Updated through the day; games that have kicked off drop off.
| # | Underdog | Game | Spread | Moneyline | Market win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Titans | vs CLE | +1.5 | +108 | 46% |
| 2 |  Chiefs | at SEA | +2.5 | +116 | 44% |
| 3 |  Bengals | at BAL | +2.75 | +125 | 43% |
| 4 |  Patriots | at CHI | +3 | +132 | 41% |
| 5 |  Packers | at DET | +3 | +144 | 39% |
| 6 |  Buccaneers | at CAR | +3.5 | +149 | 38% |
| 7 |  Falcons | vs SF | +3.25 | +148 | 38% |
| 8 |  Saints | vs PIT | +3.5 | +150 | 38% |
| 9 |  Raiders | vs LAR | +4.5 | +176 | 34% |
| 10 |  Eagles | vs DAL | +4.5 | +180 | 34% |
| 11 |  Cardinals | vs DEN | +4.5 | +195 | 32% |
| 12 |  Dolphins | at NYJ | +4.5 | +195 | 32% |
| 13 |  Colts | at MIN | +6.5 | +233 | 28% |
| 14 |  Giants | at HOU | +9.5 | +365 | 19% |
WHICH DOG IS WORTH THE PICK?
The board above is the market’s view. Pro ranks every dog by our model’s win probability and shows our win % for each dog and its expected points for a dog pool.
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HOW TO WIN YOUR UNDERDOG POOL
Price is half the pick
A dog pool pays for upsets, so the question is never just “who might win.” A long shot pays more when it wins and wins less often. Expected points are a dog’s win probability times its payout, so a short-priced dog and a long one can only be compared by multiplying the two. The table above gives you the market’s win % and the payout to do that with.
Do not use a team twice
Many pools bar reusing a team. The dog you like this week may be the better dog in a softer matchup in a month, so a pick that is only slightly better now can be the wrong one to spend.
Spread pools score differently
Some pools score on covering the spread, not winning outright. A dog can lose the game and still cover, so check which your pool uses before you read the payout column.
QUESTIONS
In a dog pool you pick one or more underdogs each week and score when they win outright. Most pools award points equal to the underdog's moneyline payout, so a +180 dog that wins is worth 180 points and a +110 dog is worth 110. Some pools use the point spread instead, and many do not let you use a team twice.
By the market, the likeliest Week 7 dog is the Tennessee Titans at +108, 46% to win with the books' margin removed. The biggest payout is the New York Giants at +365. Every dog is on the board with its spread, moneyline and payout points.
Weigh payout against win probability. A +300 dog wins about one game in four, so its expected points are the payout times that chance, not the payout alone. A short-priced dog wins more often and pays less.
It is the betting market's number, not ours. Each sportsbook's two moneylines are converted to probabilities and the book's margin is removed (additive), then the books are averaged. The moneyline shown is the median across books.
Yes, for Pro members. Pro ranks every dog by our model's win probability and shows our win % for each dog and its expected points for a dog pool. Our straight-up pick accuracy is 66.1% across six seasons, every pick graded in public. Past results are not a guarantee.
Playing survivor instead? See our survivor picks, ranked by win probability with the teams to save.
SURVIVOR PICKS →Prices and win probabilities on this board are the betting market’s. Past results. Not financial advice.