MIA @ DEN – Week 13 2026
MIA
DEN
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 13 · 2026 SEASON
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DEN 78%Projected margin: -9.0
DEN
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-9.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.105Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.017Offense EPA / play+0.050
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.088
41.9%Offense success %44.2%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DEN at 78%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DEN generates 0.050 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.0-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for DEN. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DEN market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIA
D.Achane
RB
322.8SEASON PPR
J.Waddle
WR
194.1SEASON PPR
T.Tagovailoa
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
T.Tagovailoa2660 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
D.Achane1350 yd · 8 TD
J.Wright288 yd · 2 TD
O.Gordon199 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
J.Waddle64 rec · 910 yd · 6 TD
D.Achane67 rec · 488 yd · 4 TD
G.Dulcich26 rec · 335 yd · 1 TD
M.Washington46 rec · 317 yd · 3 TD
VS
2,660PASSyds3,931
1,837RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@MIAW3 2023 | DEN 20, MIA 70 | MIA | W |
| MIA@DENW11 2020 | MIA 13, DEN 20 | MIA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs DEN
Who is favored in Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos?
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 78% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 9.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos play?
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos game?
Miami Dolphins, 20-70 in Week 3 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Miami Dolphins or the Denver Broncos?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: MIA -0.105 against DEN +0.138.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
