Dolphins vs Broncos – Week 13 2026
MIA
DEN
MIA
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 13 · 2026 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Broncos over the Dolphins at 81% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DEN 81%Our line: DEN -11.9
80% range around our line: MIA by 5 to DEN by 29. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DEN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -11.9
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
81%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
80%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
| SPORTSBOOK | MIA | DEN | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 13 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.224Net EPA / play-0.041
-0.116 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.066 (24)
+0.108 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (14)
37.6% (30)Offense success %39.9% (26)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DEN at 81%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DEN generates -0.066 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.108. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.9-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for DEN. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
M.Willis849 yd · 2 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@MIAW3 2023 | DEN 20, MIA 70 | MIA | W |
| MIA@DENW11 2020 | MIA 13, DEN 20 | MIA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 81% win probability. The margin models project DEN by 11.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Denver Broncos at 81% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Miami Dolphins, DEN 20, MIA 70 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Denver Broncos: MIA -0.224 against DEN -0.041.
