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PLAYOFFS
2026 · PLAYOFF PICTURE

2026 NFL PLAYOFFS

Our model’s top seeds are the Bills (AFC) and Lions (NFC), with Buffalo Bills the Super Bowl favorite at 10.9%. Projected seven-seed fields for both conferences below.

Bills
AFC #1 SEED
Lions
NFC #1 SEED
Bills
SB FAVORITE
10.9%
SB ODDS
10,000 SIMULATIONS · REAL 2026 SCHEDULE

AFC PROJECTED SEEDS

SEEDS 1–4 DIVISION WINNERS · 5–7 WILDCARD
1Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills
AFC East winner · first-round bye
10.3 W
78% PO
2Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
AFC North winner
9.9 W
68% PO
3Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos
AFC West winner
9.8 W
68% PO
4Houston Texans
Houston Texans
AFC South winner
9.1 W
57% PO
5New England Patriots
New England Patriots
Wildcard
9.3 W
60% PO
6Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
Wildcard
9.1 W
55% PO
7Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars
Wildcard
9.0 W
54% PO
On the outside: Colts (9.0 W, 53%) · Chargers (8.6 W, 46%) · Steelers (8.4 W, 42%)

NFC PROJECTED SEEDS

SEEDS 1–4 DIVISION WINNERS · 5–7 WILDCARD
1Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions
NFC North winner · first-round bye
10.2 W
69% PO
2Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
NFC East winner
10.1 W
70% PO
3Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams
NFC West winner
9.9 W
67% PO
4Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC South winner
8.8 W
49% PO
5Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
Wildcard
9.5 W
58% PO
6Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks
Wildcard
9.3 W
55% PO
7San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
Wildcard
9.1 W
50% PO
On the outside: Vikings (8.8 W, 44%) · Bears (8.4 W, 39%) · Falcons (8.4 W, 41%)

2026 PLAYOFFS · FAQ

Who are the projected 2026 NFL playoff teams?
AFC: Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars. NFC: Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers.
Which teams get the #1 seed in 2026?
Buffalo Bills are our projected AFC #1 seed (20% bye odds) and Detroit Lions the NFC #1 seed (17%).
Who is the 2026 Super Bowl favorite?
Buffalo Bills, winning the Super Bowl in 10.9% of 10,000 simulations. No team clears 15% — a single NFL season is mostly variance.
ALL 2026 PROJECTIONSDIVISION RACESMETHODOLOGY
Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule; seeds approximate the 4 division winners plus 3 wildcards by projected wins. In-season odds re-simulate weekly from Week 1. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.