The Bears draw the toughest 2026 slate by average opponent strength; the Browns the easiest. Full ranking by opponent net EPA per play below.
Same projected opponent ratings as the full-season ranking below, averaged over the games still to play. For a board rated on 2026 results so far, see remaining schedule strength.
Every Wednesday the model grades a pick on every game and emails it before kickoff. Free.
| TEAM | AVG | WK 6 | WK 7 | WK 8 | WK 9 | WK 10 | WK 11 | WK 12 | WK 13 | WK 14 | WK 15 | WK 16 | WK 17 | WK 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +11% | -8%HOU | BYE | +15%IND | -6%@BAL | +18%@TEN | +16%@NYG | +18%TEN | +6%@CHI | +3%PIT | -8%@HOU | +33%@DAL | +28%WAS | +15%@IND | |
| +10% | -6%CAR | +33%DAL | +28%@WAS | +16%NYG | BYE | +3%PIT | +33%@DAL | +20%@ARI | +15%IND | -26%SEA | -8%HOU | 0%@SF | +16%@NYG | |
| +8% | +15%@IND | -14%CLE | +9%@CIN | BYE | -9%JAX | +33%@DAL | -9%@JAX | +28%WAS | +32%@DET | +15%IND | +6%@LV | +3%PIT | -8%@HOU | |
| +7% | BYE | +15%IND | +32%@DET | -8%BUF | -16%@GB | 0%@SF | +10%ATL | -6%CAR | -14%@NE | +32%DET | +28%WAS | +10%@NYJ | +6%CHI | |
| +4% | -6%@DEN | -10%KC | +6%CHI | +20%ARI | +6%@LV | BYE | 0%@SF | +33%DAL | +16%NYG | -6%@PHI | -2%LAR | -6%@CAR | -2%@LAR | |
| +4% | -6%BAL | +18%@TEN | +3%@PIT | -19%@NO | -8%HOU | BYE | +6%LV | +9%CIN | +10%ATL | +16%@NYG | -6%@BAL | +15%IND | +9%@CIN | |
| +3% | 0%@SF | BYE | -6%PHI | -2%LAR | +16%@NYG | +9%CIN | +20%@ARI | +18%@TEN | -8%HOU | +10%ATL | -40%@MIN | -9%@JAX | +33%DAL | |
| +3% | +16%@NYG | +3%PIT | BYE | -14%CLE | -6%CAR | +6%@CHI | +9%@CIN | -16%GB | -6%@CAR | +8%@TB | +20%ARI | +10%@ATL | +8%TB | |
| +3% | -16%@GB | -6%@PHI | +20%ARI | +15%@IND | 0%SF | +18%TEN | -6%PHI | -26%@SEA | BYE | -2%@LAR | -9%JAX | +16%NYG | +28%@WAS | |
| +2% | -19%NO | -8%@HOU | BYE | -6%@PHI | +28%WAS | -9%JAX | +15%@IND | 0%SF | -26%@SEA | -14%CLE | +32%@DET | +33%@DAL | -6%PHI | |
| +1% | +20%ARI | +6%@LV | -24%LAC | +28%@WAS | +20%@ARI | BYE | -16%GB | -10%KC | 0%@SF | +33%DAL | -26%@SEA | +8%@TB | -26%SEA | |
| +1% | +18%TEN | -40%@MIN | -9%@JAX | +33%DAL | +3%MIA | -8%@HOU | +16%NYG | BYE | -6%@PHI | +18%@TEN | +9%CIN | -14%@CLE | -9%JAX | |
| +1% | +33%DAL | +32%@DET | -6%CAR | -14%@NE | -40%MIN | BYE | -2%@LAR | -19%@NO | -8%BUF | +3%MIA | +6%@CHI | -8%HOU | +32%DET | |
| 0% | -2%@LAR | -6%DEN | +33%@DAL | -26%@SEA | -2%LAR | -10%@KC | +28%WAS | -6%PHI | BYE | +10%NYJ | -19%@NO | +6%LV | 0%SF | |
| 0% | +6%CHI | 0%SF | +8%@TB | +9%CIN | -10%KC | BYE | -40%@MIN | +32%DET | -14%@CLE | +28%@WAS | +8%TB | -19%NO | -6%@CAR | |
| 0% | +28%WAS | +10%@ATL | BYE | +6%LV | +33%@DAL | -40%MIN | -26%SEA | +16%@NYG | -2%LAR | -24%@LAC | -10%@KC | -6%PHI | +20%@ARI | |
| 0% | BYE | -6%@BAL | +18%TEN | +10%@ATL | +3%PIT | +28%@WAS | -19%NO | -14%@CLE | -10%KC | -6%@CAR | +15%@IND | -6%BAL | -14%CLE | |
| 0% | -9%@JAX | +16%NYG | BYE | -24%@LAC | -14%@CLE | +15%IND | -6%BAL | +3%@PIT | +28%@WAS | -9%JAX | -6%@PHI | -16%@GB | +18%TEN | |
| -1% | BYE | +10%@NYJ | -14%NE | +32%DET | +15%@IND | -8%@BUF | +10%NYJ | -6%@DEN | +6%CHI | -16%@GB | -24%LAC | -8%BUF | -14%@NE | |
| -2% | +3%PIT | -6%@CAR | +10%ATL | +6%@CHI | BYE | +32%@DET | -6%CAR | -24%LAC | -6%@BAL | -19%NO | +10%@ATL | -2%LAR | -19%@NO | |
| -2% | -10%@KC | BYE | -2%@LAR | -8%HOU | -6%@BAL | +10%NYJ | -14%NE | +8%@TB | +6%@LV | 0%SF | +3%@MIA | -10%KC | -6%@DEN | |
| -3% | +10%NYJ | +6%@CHI | +3%@MIA | -16%GB | +32%@DET | BYE | -24%@LAC | -8%BUF | -40%MIN | -10%@KC | +10%@NYJ | -6%DEN | +3%MIA | |
| -4% | -26%SEA | +20%@ARI | -10%KC | -6%@CAR | BYE | +6%LV | +3%@PIT | +3%MIA | +10%@NYJ | +6%@LV | -8%BUF | -14%@NE | -24%LAC | |
| -4% | +8%@TB | -19%@NO | -14%CLE | BYE | +9%@CIN | -6%@PHI | -6%DEN | -8%HOU | -9%@JAX | -6%BAL | -6%CAR | +18%@TEN | -6%@BAL | |
| -4% | -24%LAC | -26%@SEA | -6%@DEN | +10%NYJ | +10%@ATL | +20%ARI | -8%@BUF | -2%@LAR | +9%@CIN | -14%NE | 0%SF | -24%@LAC | +6%LV | |
| -4% | +10%@ATL | -14%NE | -26%@SEA | +8%TB | BYE | -19%NO | +32%@DET | -9%JAX | +3%@MIA | -8%@BUF | -16%GB | +32%DET | -40%@MIN | |
| -4% | -8%BUF | -2%LAR | +10%@NYJ | 0%@SF | -26%SEA | -6%@DEN | -14%@CLE | BYE | -24%LAC | -6%DEN | +18%TEN | +20%@ARI | -10%@KC | |
| -4% | -14%@CLE | +9%CIN | -8%@BUF | -9%JAX | -24%LAC | -6%@CAR | -8%@HOU | BYE | +8%TB | +3%@PIT | -14%CLE | +9%@CIN | +3%PIT | |
| -5% | +6%@LV | BYE | -6%BAL | -40%@MIN | +10%@NYJ | +3%MIA | -10%KC | -14%@NE | -16%@GB | +6%CHI | -6%@DEN | +3%@MIA | +10%NYJ | |
| -5% | BYE | -16%GB | -40%MIN | +3%@MIA | -14%NE | +8%TB | +6%CHI | +10%@ATL | +18%TEN | -40%@MIN | +16%NYG | +6%@CHI | -16%@GB | |
| -8% | -6%@PHI | +8%TB | -16%@GB | -6%DEN | -19%@NO | -6%BAL | +8%@TB | -40%@MIN | -19%NO | +9%CIN | +3%@PIT | -26%SEA | +10%ATL | |
| -8% | -14%@NE | +3%MIA | +6%LV | -10%@KC | -8%BUF | -24%@LAC | +3%@MIA | BYE | -6%DEN | +20%@ARI | -14%NE | -40%MIN | -8%@BUF |
How to read it: each cell is the opponent’s defense against quarterbacks. +25% means it has allowed 25% more PPR fantasy points to QBs than the average defense, a good week for that team’s QB. -25% means 25% fewer, a hard one. AVG is the mean of the weeks shown, and teams are sorted softest slate first. Based on each defense’s last 17 games.
| TEAM | AVG | WK 6 | WK 7 | WK 8 | WK 9 | WK 10 | WK 11 | WK 12 | WK 13 | WK 14 | WK 15 | WK 16 | WK 17 | WK 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +6% | +16%CAR | +13%DAL | +11%@WAS | +13%NYG | BYE | -10%PIT | +13%@DAL | +18%@ARI | +3%IND | -14%SEA | -12%HOU | +12%@SF | +13%@NYG | |
| +5% | +13%@NYG | -10%PIT | BYE | +3%CLE | +16%CAR | -14%@CHI | +12%@CIN | +12%GB | +16%@CAR | -5%@TB | +18%ARI | +3%@ATL | -5%TB | |
| +5% | BYE | +3%IND | -11%@DET | +17%BUF | +12%@GB | +12%@SF | +3%ATL | +16%CAR | -9%@NE | -11%DET | +11%WAS | +30%@NYJ | -14%CHI | |
| +4% | BYE | +30%@NYJ | -9%NE | -11%DET | +3%@IND | +17%@BUF | +30%NYJ | -12%@DEN | -14%CHI | +12%@GB | -10%LAC | +17%BUF | -9%@NE | |
| +3% | -14%SEA | +18%@ARI | -17%KC | +16%@CAR | BYE | +5%LV | -10%@PIT | +12%MIA | +30%@NYJ | +5%@LV | +17%BUF | -9%@NE | -10%LAC | |
| +3% | -10%LAC | -14%@SEA | -12%@DEN | +30%NYJ | +3%@ATL | +18%ARI | +17%@BUF | -1%@LAR | +12%@CIN | -9%NE | +12%SF | -10%@LAC | +5%LV | |
| +3% | -1%@LAR | -12%DEN | +13%@DAL | -14%@SEA | -1%LAR | -17%@KC | +11%WAS | +1%PHI | BYE | +30%NYJ | +6%@NO | +5%LV | +12%SF | |
| +3% | -12%@DEN | -17%KC | -14%CHI | +18%ARI | +5%@LV | BYE | +12%@SF | +13%DAL | +13%NYG | +1%@PHI | -1%LAR | +16%@CAR | -1%@LAR | |
| +2% | +18%ARI | +5%@LV | -10%LAC | +11%@WAS | +18%@ARI | BYE | +12%GB | -17%KC | +12%@SF | +13%DAL | -14%@SEA | -5%@TB | -14%SEA | |
| +2% | +30%NYJ | -14%@CHI | +12%@MIA | +12%GB | -11%@DET | BYE | -10%@LAC | +17%BUF | -21%MIN | -17%@KC | +30%@NYJ | -12%DEN | +12%MIA | |
| +1% | +5%@LV | BYE | -11%BAL | -21%@MIN | +30%@NYJ | +12%MIA | -17%KC | -9%@NE | +12%@GB | -14%CHI | -12%@DEN | +12%@MIA | +30%NYJ | |
| +1% | +12%@GB | +1%@PHI | +18%ARI | +3%@IND | +12%SF | -17%TEN | +1%PHI | -14%@SEA | BYE | -1%@LAR | -22%JAX | +13%NYG | +11%@WAS | |
| 0% | -9%@NE | +12%MIA | +5%LV | -17%@KC | +17%BUF | -10%@LAC | +12%@MIA | BYE | -12%DEN | +18%@ARI | -9%NE | -21%MIN | +17%@BUF | |
| 0% | +11%WAS | +3%@ATL | BYE | +5%LV | +13%@DAL | -21%MIN | -14%SEA | +13%@NYG | -1%LAR | -10%@LAC | -17%@KC | +1%PHI | +18%@ARI | |
| 0% | +12%@SF | BYE | +1%PHI | -1%LAR | +13%@NYG | +12%CIN | +18%@ARI | -17%@TEN | -12%HOU | +3%ATL | -21%@MIN | -22%@JAX | +13%DAL | |
| 0% | +17%BUF | -1%LAR | +30%@NYJ | +12%@SF | -14%SEA | -12%@DEN | +3%@CLE | BYE | -10%LAC | -12%DEN | -17%TEN | +18%@ARI | -17%@KC | |
| 0% | +3%@CLE | +12%CIN | +17%@BUF | -22%JAX | -10%LAC | +16%@CAR | -12%@HOU | BYE | -5%TB | -10%@PIT | +3%CLE | +12%@CIN | -10%PIT | |
| -1% | -10%PIT | +16%@CAR | +3%ATL | -14%@CHI | BYE | -11%@DET | +16%CAR | -10%LAC | -11%@BAL | +6%NO | +3%@ATL | -1%LAR | +6%@NO | |
| -1% | -11%BAL | -17%@TEN | -10%@PIT | +6%@NO | -12%HOU | BYE | +5%LV | +12%CIN | +3%ATL | +13%@NYG | -11%@BAL | +3%IND | +12%@CIN | |
| -1% | +6%NO | -12%@HOU | BYE | +1%@PHI | +11%WAS | -22%JAX | +3%@IND | +12%SF | -14%@SEA | +3%CLE | -11%@DET | +13%@DAL | +1%PHI | |
| -1% | -14%CHI | +12%SF | -5%@TB | +12%CIN | -17%KC | BYE | -21%@MIN | -11%DET | +3%@CLE | +11%@WAS | -5%TB | +6%NO | +16%@CAR | |
| -1% | +13%DAL | -11%@DET | +16%CAR | -9%@NE | -21%MIN | BYE | -1%@LAR | +6%@NO | +17%BUF | +12%MIA | -14%@CHI | -12%HOU | -11%DET | |
| -2% | BYE | -11%@BAL | -17%TEN | +3%@ATL | -10%PIT | +11%@WAS | +6%NO | +3%@CLE | -17%KC | +16%@CAR | +3%@IND | -11%BAL | +3%CLE | |
| -2% | -17%@KC | BYE | -1%@LAR | -12%HOU | -11%@BAL | +30%NYJ | -9%NE | -5%@TB | +5%@LV | +12%SF | +12%@MIA | -17%KC | -12%@DEN | |
| -2% | +3%@IND | +3%CLE | +12%@CIN | BYE | -22%JAX | +13%@DAL | -22%@JAX | +11%WAS | -11%@DET | +3%IND | +5%@LV | -10%PIT | -12%@HOU | |
| -3% | +1%@PHI | -5%TB | +12%@GB | -12%DEN | +6%@NO | -11%BAL | -5%@TB | -21%@MIN | +6%NO | +12%CIN | -10%@PIT | -14%SEA | +3%ATL | |
| -4% | +3%@ATL | -9%NE | -14%@SEA | -5%TB | BYE | +6%NO | -11%@DET | -22%JAX | +12%@MIA | +17%@BUF | +12%GB | -11%DET | -21%@MIN | |
| -4% | BYE | +12%GB | -21%MIN | +12%@MIA | -9%NE | -5%TB | -14%CHI | +3%@ATL | -17%TEN | -21%@MIN | +13%NYG | -14%@CHI | +12%@GB | |
| -4% | -12%HOU | BYE | +3%IND | -11%@BAL | -17%@TEN | +13%@NYG | -17%TEN | -14%@CHI | -10%PIT | -12%@HOU | +13%@DAL | +11%WAS | +3%@IND | |
| -4% | -22%@JAX | +13%NYG | BYE | -10%@LAC | +3%@CLE | +3%IND | -11%BAL | -10%@PIT | +11%@WAS | -22%JAX | +1%@PHI | +12%@GB | -17%TEN | |
| -4% | -5%@TB | +6%@NO | +3%CLE | BYE | +12%@CIN | +1%@PHI | -12%DEN | -12%HOU | -22%@JAX | -11%BAL | +16%CAR | -17%@TEN | -11%@BAL | |
| -5% | -17%TEN | -21%@MIN | -22%@JAX | +13%DAL | +12%MIA | -12%@HOU | +13%NYG | BYE | +1%@PHI | -17%@TEN | +12%CIN | +3%@CLE | -22%JAX |
How to read it: each cell is the opponent’s defense against running backs. +25% means it has allowed 25% more PPR fantasy points to RBs than the average defense, a good week for that team’s RB. -25% means 25% fewer, a hard one. AVG is the mean of the weeks shown, and teams are sorted softest slate first. Based on each defense’s last 17 games.
| TEAM | AVG | WK 6 | WK 7 | WK 8 | WK 9 | WK 10 | WK 11 | WK 12 | WK 13 | WK 14 | WK 15 | WK 16 | WK 17 | WK 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +11% | -1%HOU | BYE | +12%IND | +11%@BAL | +16%@TEN | +1%@NYG | +16%TEN | +16%@CHI | +9%PIT | -1%@HOU | +19%@DAL | +18%WAS | +12%@IND | |
| +7% | BYE | +12%IND | +21%@DET | +1%BUF | -2%@GB | +3%@SF | +19%ATL | -7%CAR | -8%@NE | +21%DET | +18%WAS | -4%@NYJ | +16%CHI | |
| +6% | +12%@IND | -11%CLE | -22%@CIN | BYE | +4%JAX | +19%@DAL | +4%@JAX | +18%WAS | +21%@DET | +12%IND | +2%@LV | +9%PIT | -1%@HOU | |
| +4% | +9%PIT | -7%@CAR | +19%ATL | +16%@CHI | BYE | +21%@DET | -7%CAR | -7%LAC | +11%@BAL | -10%NO | +19%@ATL | -3%LAR | -10%@NO | |
| +4% | -7%CAR | +19%DAL | +18%@WAS | +1%NYG | BYE | +9%PIT | +19%@DAL | +3%@ARI | +12%IND | -25%SEA | -1%HOU | +3%@SF | +1%@NYG | |
| +4% | +4%@JAX | +1%NYG | BYE | -7%@LAC | -11%@CLE | +12%IND | +11%BAL | +9%@PIT | +18%@WAS | +4%JAX | -7%@PHI | -2%@GB | +16%TEN | |
| +3% | BYE | +11%@BAL | +16%TEN | +19%@ATL | +9%PIT | +18%@WAS | -10%NO | -11%@CLE | -16%KC | -7%@CAR | +12%@IND | +11%BAL | -11%CLE | |
| +2% | +11%BAL | +16%@TEN | +9%@PIT | -10%@NO | -1%HOU | BYE | +2%LV | -22%CIN | +19%ATL | +1%@NYG | +11%@BAL | +12%IND | -22%@CIN | |
| +2% | +19%DAL | +21%@DET | -7%CAR | -8%@NE | -15%MIN | BYE | -3%@LAR | -10%@NO | +1%BUF | -8%MIA | +16%@CHI | -1%HOU | +21%DET | |
| +2% | BYE | -2%GB | -15%MIN | -8%@MIA | -8%NE | +1%TB | +16%CHI | +19%@ATL | +16%TEN | -15%@MIN | +1%NYG | +16%@CHI | -2%@GB | |
| +1% | +3%@SF | BYE | -7%PHI | -3%LAR | +1%@NYG | -22%CIN | +3%@ARI | +16%@TEN | -1%HOU | +19%ATL | -15%@MIN | +4%@JAX | +19%DAL | |
| +1% | -10%NO | -1%@HOU | BYE | -7%@PHI | +18%WAS | +4%JAX | +12%@IND | +3%SF | -25%@SEA | -11%CLE | +21%@DET | +19%@DAL | -7%PHI | |
| +1% | -2%@GB | -7%@PHI | +3%ARI | +12%@IND | +3%SF | +16%TEN | -7%PHI | -25%@SEA | BYE | -3%@LAR | +4%JAX | +1%NYG | +18%@WAS | |
| +1% | BYE | -4%@NYJ | -8%NE | +21%DET | +12%@IND | +1%@BUF | -4%NYJ | -8%@DEN | +16%CHI | -2%@GB | -7%LAC | +1%BUF | -8%@NE | |
| 0% | +1%@NYG | +9%PIT | BYE | -11%CLE | -7%CAR | +16%@CHI | -22%@CIN | -2%GB | -7%@CAR | +1%@TB | +3%ARI | +19%@ATL | +1%TB | |
| 0% | -8%@DEN | -16%KC | +16%CHI | +3%ARI | +2%@LV | BYE | +3%@SF | +19%DAL | +1%NYG | -7%@PHI | -3%LAR | -7%@CAR | -3%@LAR | |
| 0% | +19%@ATL | -8%NE | -25%@SEA | +1%TB | BYE | -10%NO | +21%@DET | +4%JAX | -8%@MIA | +1%@BUF | -2%GB | +21%DET | -15%@MIN | |
| -1% | +16%TEN | -15%@MIN | +4%@JAX | +19%DAL | -8%MIA | -1%@HOU | +1%NYG | BYE | -7%@PHI | +16%@TEN | -22%CIN | -11%@CLE | +4%JAX | |
| -1% | +18%WAS | +19%@ATL | BYE | +2%LV | +19%@DAL | -15%MIN | -25%SEA | +1%@NYG | -3%LAR | -7%@LAC | -16%@KC | -7%PHI | +3%@ARI | |
| -2% | +16%CHI | +3%SF | +1%@TB | -22%CIN | -16%KC | BYE | -15%@MIN | +21%DET | -11%@CLE | +18%@WAS | +1%TB | -10%NO | -7%@CAR | |
| -2% | +1%@TB | -10%@NO | -11%CLE | BYE | -22%@CIN | -7%@PHI | -8%DEN | -1%HOU | +4%@JAX | +11%BAL | -7%CAR | +16%@TEN | +11%@BAL | |
| -2% | +3%ARI | +2%@LV | -7%LAC | +18%@WAS | +3%@ARI | BYE | -2%GB | -16%KC | +3%@SF | +19%DAL | -25%@SEA | +1%@TB | -25%SEA | |
| -3% | -3%@LAR | -8%DEN | +19%@DAL | -25%@SEA | -3%LAR | -16%@KC | +18%WAS | -7%PHI | BYE | -4%NYJ | -10%@NO | +2%LV | +3%SF | |
| -3% | -4%NYJ | +16%@CHI | -8%@MIA | -2%GB | +21%@DET | BYE | -7%@LAC | +1%BUF | -15%MIN | -16%@KC | -4%@NYJ | -8%DEN | -8%MIA | |
| -4% | +2%@LV | BYE | +11%BAL | -15%@MIN | -4%@NYJ | -8%MIA | -16%KC | -8%@NE | -2%@GB | +16%CHI | -8%@DEN | -8%@MIA | -4%NYJ | |
| -4% | -16%@KC | BYE | -3%@LAR | -1%HOU | +11%@BAL | -4%NYJ | -8%NE | +1%@TB | +2%@LV | +3%SF | -8%@MIA | -16%KC | -8%@DEN | |
| -4% | -7%LAC | -25%@SEA | -8%@DEN | -4%NYJ | +19%@ATL | +3%ARI | +1%@BUF | -3%@LAR | -22%@CIN | -8%NE | +3%SF | -7%@LAC | +2%LV | |
| -4% | -7%@PHI | +1%TB | -2%@GB | -8%DEN | -10%@NO | +11%BAL | +1%@TB | -15%@MIN | -10%NO | -22%CIN | +9%@PIT | -25%SEA | +19%ATL | |
| -5% | -11%@CLE | -22%CIN | +1%@BUF | +4%JAX | -7%LAC | -7%@CAR | -1%@HOU | BYE | +1%TB | +9%@PIT | -11%CLE | -22%@CIN | +9%PIT | |
| -5% | +1%BUF | -3%LAR | -4%@NYJ | +3%@SF | -25%SEA | -8%@DEN | -11%@CLE | BYE | -7%LAC | -8%DEN | +16%TEN | +3%@ARI | -16%@KC | |
| -5% | -25%SEA | +3%@ARI | -16%KC | -7%@CAR | BYE | +2%LV | +9%@PIT | -8%MIA | -4%@NYJ | +2%@LV | +1%BUF | -8%@NE | -7%LAC | |
| -6% | -8%@NE | -8%MIA | +2%LV | -16%@KC | +1%BUF | -7%@LAC | -8%@MIA | BYE | -8%DEN | +3%@ARI | -8%NE | -15%MIN | +1%@BUF |
How to read it: each cell is the opponent’s defense against wide receivers. +25% means it has allowed 25% more PPR fantasy points to WRs than the average defense, a good week for that team’s WR. -25% means 25% fewer, a hard one. AVG is the mean of the weeks shown, and teams are sorted softest slate first. Based on each defense’s last 17 games.
| TEAM | AVG | WK 6 | WK 7 | WK 8 | WK 9 | WK 10 | WK 11 | WK 12 | WK 13 | WK 14 | WK 15 | WK 16 | WK 17 | WK 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +14% | +22%@IND | -5%CLE | +50%@CIN | BYE | +2%JAX | -9%@DAL | +2%@JAX | +36%WAS | +44%@DET | +22%IND | -3%@LV | +14%PIT | -9%@HOU | |
| +9% | -18%CHI | -3%SF | +19%@TB | +50%CIN | +8%KC | BYE | -36%@MIN | +44%DET | -5%@CLE | +36%@WAS | +19%TB | -6%NO | +3%@CAR | |
| +7% | -5%@CLE | +50%CIN | -29%@BUF | +2%JAX | -20%LAC | +3%@CAR | -9%@HOU | BYE | +19%TB | +14%@PIT | -5%CLE | +50%@CIN | +14%PIT | |
| +7% | -7%@NYG | +14%PIT | BYE | -5%CLE | +3%CAR | -18%@CHI | +50%@CIN | -27%GB | +3%@CAR | +19%@TB | +35%ARI | -4%@ATL | +19%TB | |
| +5% | +3%CAR | -9%DAL | +36%@WAS | -7%NYG | BYE | +14%PIT | -9%@DAL | +35%@ARI | +22%IND | -8%SEA | -9%HOU | -3%@SF | -7%@NYG | |
| +5% | -26%BAL | +4%@TEN | +14%@PIT | -6%@NO | -9%HOU | BYE | -3%LV | +50%CIN | -4%ATL | -7%@NYG | -26%@BAL | +22%IND | +50%@CIN | |
| +4% | +35%ARI | -3%@LV | -20%LAC | +36%@WAS | +35%@ARI | BYE | -27%GB | +8%KC | -3%@SF | -9%DAL | -8%@SEA | +19%@TB | -8%SEA | |
| +4% | BYE | +22%IND | +44%@DET | -29%BUF | -27%@GB | -3%@SF | -4%ATL | +3%CAR | -11%@NE | +44%DET | +36%WAS | -4%@NYJ | -18%CHI | |
| +2% | -9%HOU | BYE | +22%IND | -26%@BAL | +4%@TEN | -7%@NYG | +4%TEN | -18%@CHI | +14%PIT | -9%@HOU | -9%@DAL | +36%WAS | +22%@IND | |
| +1% | -4%@ATL | -11%NE | -8%@SEA | +19%TB | BYE | -6%NO | +44%@DET | +2%JAX | +30%@MIA | -29%@BUF | -27%GB | +44%DET | -36%@MIN | |
| +1% | BYE | -26%@BAL | +4%TEN | -4%@ATL | +14%PIT | +36%@WAS | -6%NO | -5%@CLE | +8%KC | +3%@CAR | +22%@IND | -26%BAL | -5%CLE | |
| +1% | -8%SEA | +35%@ARI | +8%KC | +3%@CAR | BYE | -3%LV | +14%@PIT | +30%MIA | -4%@NYJ | -3%@LV | -29%BUF | -11%@NE | -20%LAC | |
| 0% | +8%@KC | BYE | -20%@LAR | -9%HOU | -26%@BAL | -4%NYJ | -11%NE | +19%@TB | -3%@LV | -3%SF | +30%@MIA | +8%KC | +14%@DEN | |
| 0% | -6%NO | -9%@HOU | BYE | -34%@PHI | +36%WAS | +2%JAX | +22%@IND | -3%SF | -8%@SEA | -5%CLE | +44%@DET | -9%@DAL | -34%PHI | |
| -1% | +4%TEN | -36%@MIN | +2%@JAX | -9%DAL | +30%MIA | -9%@HOU | -7%NYG | BYE | -34%@PHI | +4%@TEN | +50%CIN | -5%@CLE | +2%JAX | |
| -1% | -4%NYJ | -18%@CHI | +30%@MIA | -27%GB | +44%@DET | BYE | -20%@LAC | -29%BUF | -36%MIN | +8%@KC | -4%@NYJ | +14%DEN | +30%MIA | |
| -1% | -29%BUF | -20%LAR | -4%@NYJ | -3%@SF | -8%SEA | +14%@DEN | -5%@CLE | BYE | -20%LAC | +14%DEN | +4%TEN | +35%@ARI | +8%@KC | |
| -1% | +19%@TB | -6%@NO | -5%CLE | BYE | +50%@CIN | -34%@PHI | +14%DEN | -9%HOU | +2%@JAX | -26%BAL | +3%CAR | +4%@TEN | -26%@BAL | |
| -1% | -9%DAL | +44%@DET | +3%CAR | -11%@NE | -36%MIN | BYE | -20%@LAR | -6%@NO | -29%BUF | +30%MIA | -18%@CHI | -9%HOU | +44%DET | |
| -2% | -20%LAC | -8%@SEA | +14%@DEN | -4%NYJ | -4%@ATL | +35%ARI | -29%@BUF | -20%@LAR | +50%@CIN | -11%NE | -3%SF | -20%@LAC | -3%LV | |
| -2% | -11%@NE | +30%MIA | -3%LV | +8%@KC | -29%BUF | -20%@LAC | +30%@MIA | BYE | +14%DEN | +35%@ARI | -11%NE | -36%MIN | -29%@BUF | |
| -3% | -3%@SF | BYE | -34%PHI | -20%LAR | -7%@NYG | +50%CIN | +35%@ARI | +4%@TEN | -9%HOU | -4%ATL | -36%@MIN | +2%@JAX | -9%DAL | |
| -3% | -34%@PHI | +19%TB | -27%@GB | +14%DEN | -6%@NO | -26%BAL | +19%@TB | -36%@MIN | -6%NO | +50%CIN | +14%@PIT | -8%SEA | -4%ATL | |
| -3% | -27%@GB | -34%@PHI | +35%ARI | +22%@IND | -3%SF | +4%TEN | -34%PHI | -8%@SEA | BYE | -20%@LAR | +2%JAX | -7%NYG | +36%@WAS | |
| -3% | +2%@JAX | -7%NYG | BYE | -20%@LAC | -5%@CLE | +22%IND | -26%BAL | +14%@PIT | +36%@WAS | +2%JAX | -34%@PHI | -27%@GB | +4%TEN | |
| -3% | +14%PIT | +3%@CAR | -4%ATL | -18%@CHI | BYE | +44%@DET | +3%CAR | -20%LAC | -26%@BAL | -6%NO | -4%@ATL | -20%LAR | -6%@NO | |
| -4% | -20%@LAR | +14%DEN | -9%@DAL | -8%@SEA | -20%LAR | +8%@KC | +36%WAS | -34%PHI | BYE | -4%NYJ | -6%@NO | -3%LV | -3%SF | |
| -4% | -3%@LV | BYE | -26%BAL | -36%@MIN | -4%@NYJ | +30%MIA | +8%KC | -11%@NE | -27%@GB | -18%CHI | +14%@DEN | +30%@MIA | -4%NYJ | |
| -4% | +14%@DEN | +8%KC | -18%CHI | +35%ARI | -3%@LV | BYE | -3%@SF | -9%DAL | -7%NYG | -34%@PHI | -20%LAR | +3%@CAR | -20%@LAR | |
| -5% | +36%WAS | -4%@ATL | BYE | -3%LV | -9%@DAL | -36%MIN | -8%SEA | -7%@NYG | -20%LAR | -20%@LAC | +8%@KC | -34%PHI | +35%@ARI | |
| -6% | BYE | -4%@NYJ | -11%NE | +44%DET | +22%@IND | -29%@BUF | -4%NYJ | +14%@DEN | -18%CHI | -27%@GB | -20%LAC | -29%BUF | -11%@NE | |
| -11% | BYE | -27%GB | -36%MIN | +30%@MIA | -11%NE | +19%TB | -18%CHI | -4%@ATL | +4%TEN | -36%@MIN | -7%NYG | -18%@CHI | -27%@GB |
How to read it: each cell is the opponent’s defense against tight ends. +25% means it has allowed 25% more PPR fantasy points to TEs than the average defense, a good week for that team’s TE. -25% means 25% fewer, a hard one. AVG is the mean of the weeks shown, and teams are sorted softest slate first. Based on each defense’s last 17 games.
Every Wednesday the model picks every game and emails the slate before kickoff. Every pick is graded in public, wins and losses.