“GAP” is the raw distance between our projected margin and the opening line, in points. “BEYOND SHRINK” is what is left of that gap once our number is fitted to the line, and it is what the table is ranked on. Our projection is a preseason prior regressed toward the mean, so its margins run compressed relative to the line’s; the raw gap is therefore widest on games the market already calls blowouts, whether or not we think anything different about them. This is the model’s number shown next to the line for context, not a bet recommendation. Opening lines are a fixed snapshot; in-season numbers move.
What does model vs market mean?
We compare our model's projected margin for each 2026 game to the market's opening spread. Our projection is a preseason prior regressed toward the mean, so its margins are deliberately compressed relative to the line's. Ranking on the raw difference would mostly surface games the market prices as blowouts, since that is where the two scales drift furthest apart. We rank on what is left after fitting our number to the line, so the list shows where the model actually differs rather than where it simply shrinks.
Which 2026 game does the model differ from the market on most?
Bengals at Falcons: we project ATL by 2.9 while the line opened CIN -5.5, a 8.4-point difference.
Is this the Edge or a bet recommendation?
No. This is the model's straight projection next to the opening line, shown for context. The Edge is a separate, Pro members' signal. Past results are not financial advice.
Model projections from Monte Carlo simulations of the real 2026 schedule; opening lines snapshotted preseason. Projection by
Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.
Before kickoff
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