2026 NFL Model vs Market: Where Our Projections Differ From the Line

BIGGEST SPREAD DIFFERENCES · 2026

TOP 40 BY GAP BETWEEN OUR MARGIN AND THE LINE

#	MATCHUP	OUR PROJ	OPENING LINE	GAP	TOTAL Δ
1	ARI @ DAL	DAL -2.1	DAL -10.5	8.4	-3.5
2	CIN @ ATL	ATL -2.9	CIN -5.5	8.4	-4.5
3	ARI @ SEA	SEA -5.2	SEA -13.5	8.3	-0.5
4	SEA @ ARI	SEA -2.2	SEA -10.0	7.8	-0.5
5	CIN @ MIA	MIA -0.9	CIN -6.0	6.9	-4.5
6	ARI @ LAR	LAR -6.7	LAR -13.5	6.8	-2.5
7	LAR @ ARI	LAR -3.7	LAR -10.5	6.8	-3.5
8	ARI @ KC	KC -4.8	KC -11.5	6.7	+0.5
9	SF @ ARI	SF -1.8	SF -8.5	6.7	-0.5
10	ARI @ SF	SF -4.8	SF -11.5	6.7	-1.5
11	ARI @ LAC	LAC -4.2	LAC -10.5	6.3	-2.5
12	ARI @ NYG	NYG -0.8	NYG -7.0	6.2	-0.5
13	NYJ @ ARI	ARI -4.6	NYJ -1.5	6.1	+3.5
14	LV @ ARI	ARI -4.5	LV -1.5	6.0	+2.5
15	CIN @ CLE	CLE -1.4	CIN -4.5	5.9	-0.5
16	CLE @ CIN	CIN -1.7	CIN -7.5	5.8	+0.5
17	PHI @ ARI	PHI -3.1	PHI -8.5	5.4	+1.5
18	CIN @ IND	IND -3.9	CIN -1.5	5.4	-8.5
19	LAC @ MIA	LAC -1.7	LAC -7.0	5.3	-1.5
20	KC @ MIA	KC -2.3	KC -7.5	5.2	-0.5
21	MIA @ SF	SF -5.3	SF -10.5	5.2	-1.5
22	NO @ CIN	CIN -1.3	CIN -6.5	5.2	-3.5
23	BAL @ CIN	BAL -2.6	CIN -2.5	5.1	-6.5
24	DAL @ IND	IND -3.4	DAL -1.5	4.9	-7.5
25	DET @ ARI	DET -3.6	DET -8.5	4.9	-4.5
26	CLE @ TEN	CLE -2.3	TEN -2.5	4.8	+3.5
27	SEA @ DEN	DEN -2.2	SEA -2.5	4.7	+0.5
28	DEN @ ARI	DEN -2.8	DEN -7.5	4.7	+1.5
29	CAR @ CLE	CLE -3.1	CAR -1.5	4.6	+5.5
30	WAS @ ARI	ARI -0.1	WAS -4.5	4.6	-3.5
31	CIN @ PIT	PIT -3.1	CIN -1.5	4.6	-2.5
32	MIA @ NE	NE -6.0	NE -10.5	4.5	+1.5
33	MIA @ LV	MIA -1.0	LV -3.5	4.5	+4.5
34	CIN @ WAS	WAS -2.8	CIN -1.5	4.3	-7.5
35	CLE @ BAL	BAL -5.7	BAL -10.0	4.3	+0.5
36	TEN @ IND	IND -7.8	IND -3.5	4.3	-3.5
37	KC @ ATL	KC -0.3	KC -4.5	4.2	-1.5
38	IND @ KC	KC -2.3	KC -6.5	4.2	-3.5
39	SF @ ATL	SF -0.3	SF -4.5	4.2	-3.5
40	CHI @ MIA	CHI -1.3	CHI -5.5	4.2	-1.5

“GAP” is the distance between our projected margin and the opening line, in points; “TOTAL Δ” is our projected total minus the market total. This is the model’s number shown next to the line for context, not a bet recommendation. Opening lines are a fixed snapshot; in-season numbers move.

MODEL vs MARKET · FAQ

What does model vs market mean?

We compare our model's projected margin and total for each 2026 game to the market's opening line. The bigger the gap, the more our number and the market's differ. This is analytical context — the model's number next to the line — not a bet recommendation.

Which 2026 game does the model differ from the market on most?

Cardinals at Cowboys: we project DAL by 2.1 while the line opened DAL -10.5, a 8.4-point difference.

Is this the Edge or a bet recommendation?

No. This is the model's straight projection next to the opening line, shown for context. The Edge is a separate, Pro members' signal. Past results are not financial advice.

ALL 2026 PROJECTIONS SUPER BOWL ODDS ALL MATCHUPS

Model projections from Monte Carlo simulations of the real 2026 schedule; opening lines snapshotted preseason. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.

BIGGEST SPREAD DIFFERENCES · 2026

TOP 40 BY GAP BETWEEN OUR MARGIN AND THE LINE

#	MATCHUP	OUR PROJ	OPENING LINE	GAP	TOTAL Δ
1	ARI @ DAL	DAL -2.1	DAL -10.5	8.4	-3.5
2	CIN @ ATL	ATL -2.9	CIN -5.5	8.4	-4.5
3	ARI @ SEA	SEA -5.2	SEA -13.5	8.3	-0.5
4	SEA @ ARI	SEA -2.2	SEA -10.0	7.8	-0.5
5	CIN @ MIA	MIA -0.9	CIN -6.0	6.9	-4.5
6	ARI @ LAR	LAR -6.7	LAR -13.5	6.8	-2.5
7	LAR @ ARI	LAR -3.7	LAR -10.5	6.8	-3.5
8	ARI @ KC	KC -4.8	KC -11.5	6.7	+0.5
9	SF @ ARI	SF -1.8	SF -8.5	6.7	-0.5
10	ARI @ SF	SF -4.8	SF -11.5	6.7	-1.5
11	ARI @ LAC	LAC -4.2	LAC -10.5	6.3	-2.5
12	ARI @ NYG	NYG -0.8	NYG -7.0	6.2	-0.5
13	NYJ @ ARI	ARI -4.6	NYJ -1.5	6.1	+3.5
14	LV @ ARI	ARI -4.5	LV -1.5	6.0	+2.5
15	CIN @ CLE	CLE -1.4	CIN -4.5	5.9	-0.5
16	CLE @ CIN	CIN -1.7	CIN -7.5	5.8	+0.5
17	PHI @ ARI	PHI -3.1	PHI -8.5	5.4	+1.5
18	CIN @ IND	IND -3.9	CIN -1.5	5.4	-8.5
19	LAC @ MIA	LAC -1.7	LAC -7.0	5.3	-1.5
20	KC @ MIA	KC -2.3	KC -7.5	5.2	-0.5
21	MIA @ SF	SF -5.3	SF -10.5	5.2	-1.5
22	NO @ CIN	CIN -1.3	CIN -6.5	5.2	-3.5
23	BAL @ CIN	BAL -2.6	CIN -2.5	5.1	-6.5
24	DAL @ IND	IND -3.4	DAL -1.5	4.9	-7.5
25	DET @ ARI	DET -3.6	DET -8.5	4.9	-4.5
26	CLE @ TEN	CLE -2.3	TEN -2.5	4.8	+3.5
27	SEA @ DEN	DEN -2.2	SEA -2.5	4.7	+0.5
28	DEN @ ARI	DEN -2.8	DEN -7.5	4.7	+1.5
29	CAR @ CLE	CLE -3.1	CAR -1.5	4.6	+5.5
30	WAS @ ARI	ARI -0.1	WAS -4.5	4.6	-3.5
31	CIN @ PIT	PIT -3.1	CIN -1.5	4.6	-2.5
32	MIA @ NE	NE -6.0	NE -10.5	4.5	+1.5
33	MIA @ LV	MIA -1.0	LV -3.5	4.5	+4.5
34	CIN @ WAS	WAS -2.8	CIN -1.5	4.3	-7.5
35	CLE @ BAL	BAL -5.7	BAL -10.0	4.3	+0.5
36	TEN @ IND	IND -7.8	IND -3.5	4.3	-3.5
37	KC @ ATL	KC -0.3	KC -4.5	4.2	-1.5
38	IND @ KC	KC -2.3	KC -6.5	4.2	-3.5
39	SF @ ATL	SF -0.3	SF -4.5	4.2	-3.5
40	CHI @ MIA	CHI -1.3	CHI -5.5	4.2	-1.5

MODEL vs MARKET · FAQ

What does model vs market mean?

Which 2026 game does the model differ from the market on most?

Cardinals at Cowboys: we project DAL by 2.1 while the line opened DAL -10.5, a 8.4-point difference.

Is this the Edge or a bet recommendation?

No. This is the model's straight projection next to the opening line, shown for context. The Edge is a separate, Pro members' signal. Past results are not financial advice.

ALL 2026 PROJECTIONS SUPER BOWL ODDS ALL MATCHUPS

Model projections from Monte Carlo simulations of the real 2026 schedule; opening lines snapshotted preseason. Projection by Noah Owsiany, M.S. Business Analytics.

MODEL vs THE MARKET

BIGGEST SPREAD DIFFERENCES · 2026

MODEL vs MARKET · FAQ

MODEL vs THE MARKET

BIGGEST SPREAD DIFFERENCES · 2026

MODEL vs MARKET · FAQ