49ers
2026 MATCHUP PROJECTION
Dolphins at 49ers
Offseason model projection plus deep team and player data. Priors only — before free agency, the draft, and injuries.
63%
49ers WIN
20–25
PROJ SCORE
49ers -4.6
PROJ MARGIN
Dolphins WIN%49ers WIN%
37%63%
PROJECTED MARGIN
Likely final margins (SD 13.5 pts). Each team's shaded area is its win probability; the marker is our projected margin.
TEAM EFFICIENCY · 2025
-0.105Net EPA / play0.018
-0.017Offense EPA / play0.088
0.088Defense EPA / play0.070
0.419Offense success %0.483
0.485Defense success %0.485
BY THE NUMBERS
| #25 | Power rank | #15 |
| -0.052 | Model rating | 0.009 |
| 7.0 | Proj. 2026 wins | 8.6 |
| 18% | Playoff odds | 41% |
| -0.009 | Pass EPA/play | 0.159 |
| -0.026 | Rush EPA/play | -0.004 |
| 347/424 | 2025 record pts | 437/371 |
| 0.010 | Strength of sched | 0.006 |
KEY PLAYERS · 2025
Miami Dolphins
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
| D.Achane | 1838 | 323 |
| J.Waddle | 8 | 194 |
| T.Tagovailoa | 2660 | 161 |
| M.Washington | 427 | 117 |
| D.Waller | 287 | 89 |
| G.Dulcich | 328 | 63 |
San Francisco 49ers
| Player | Yds | PPR |
|---|---|---|
THE EDGE — DEEP MATCHUP DATA
UNLOCK THE EDGE
Full passing / rushing / receiving splits for both rosters, the defensive matchup mismatches to target, and — once the season kicks off — injury reports and the model's exploit edges for this exact game.
Go Pro. Get the Edge.RECENT MEETINGS
| Season · Wk | Matchup | Final |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 · W16 | 49ers @ Dolphins | 17–29 |
| 2022 · W13 | Dolphins @ 49ers | 17–33 |
| 2020 · W5 | Dolphins @ 49ers | 43–17 |
2026 offseason priors from the season Monte-Carlo model — they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season projections take over in September. Full method on the methodology page. Past results. Not financial advice.