O/U
SCORING ENGINE
GAME TOTALS
Model-predicted total points for every matchup, with confidence tiers.
45.5
AVG TOTAL
10.9 pts
TYPICAL MISS · 1439 GAMES SINCE 2020
5O / 8U
MODEL LEAN THIS WEEK
THIS WEEK’S TOTALS
16 GAMES · WEEK 1
PREDICTED TOTAL
47.1
VEGAS LINE
51.5
UNDER
-4.4 EDGE8.1 PT PROJECTION RANGE
Call follows the model-vs-market flip rule, not the sign of the gap.
PREDICTED TOTAL
44.6
VEGAS LINE
40.5
OVER
+4.1 EDGE6.1 PT PROJECTION RANGE
Call follows the model-vs-market flip rule, not the sign of the gap.
13 more games with model totals, edges, and O/U calls are Pro-only. Go Pro
DETAILED BREAKDOWN
FULL BREAKDOWNCall follows the model-vs-market flip rule, not the sign of the gap. A pre-kickoff game with edge below the calling threshold shows NO CALL, never PUSH. A push is a settled bet outcome, not a pre-game state.
Full model breakdown available with Pro
| MATCHUP | R24 | R33 | R64 | MODEL | LINE | EDGE | CALL | TIER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TEAM @ TEAM | 47.2 | 48.1 | 46.5 | 47.3 | 45.5 | +1.8 | OVER | A |
TEAM @ TEAM | 41.6 | 42.3 | 43.0 | 42.3 | 44.0 | -1.7 | UNDER | B |
TEAM @ TEAM | 50.4 | 49.8 | 51.1 | 50.4 | 49.0 | +1.4 | OVER | S |
WHY THERE IS NO O/U RECORD HERE
MEASURED, NOT OMITTEDTurning these projections into an over/under bet does not work. Against closing totals for every regular-season game since 2020, the call went 685-713, 49.0% across 1,398 graded calls. You need 52.4% to break even at −110, so flat-staking every one of them loses about 90 units.
So we do not publish an over/under hit rate and we do not sell this as a bet. The projection is analysis, where our model lands on a game before you look at the number, and the honest measure of it is how far off it lands, which is the typical miss above.