NFC West · #1 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Los Angeles Rams
FOR 50-19 (72%)VS 23-9 (72%)ATS 42-27 (61%)518–346 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
vs
San Francisco 49ersTHU 8:35 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →vsSan Francisco 49ersKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISRanked #1 in the NFL by net EPA per play, an elite-tier team.
Balanced on both sides of the ball, efficient offense paired with a stingy defense.
Net EPA improved +0.236 from 2024, a significant year-over-year jump.
Entered the 2025 postseason as a live title threat, 25.0% championship probability in that season's simulations.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL+0.206
NET EPA/PLAY
+0.145
OFF EPA/PLAY
-0.061
DEF EPA/PLAY
+0.229
PASS EPA/PLAY
+0.026
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS+0.327
+0.097
+0.300
-0.051
+0.147
-0.026
-0.077
+0.027
-0.176
-0.259
-0.300
-0.048
-0.233
-0.005
-0.062
-0.061
-0.084
-0.247
+0.125
+0.152
+0.048
+0.162
+0.102
-0.105
+0.048
-0.030
+0.206
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.206 | +0.145 | -0.061 | 518 | 346 |
| 2024 | -0.030 | +0.014 | +0.044 | 367 | 386 |
| 2023 | +0.048 | +0.039 | -0.009 | 404 | 377 |
| 2022 | -0.105 | -0.088 | +0.017 | 307 | 384 |
| 2021 | +0.102 | +0.077 | -0.025 | 460 | 372 |
| 2020 | +0.162 | -0.015 | -0.177 | 372 | 296 |
| 2019 | +0.048 | +0.006 | -0.042 | 394 | 364 |
| 2018 | +0.152 | +0.147 | -0.005 | 527 | 384 |
| 2017 | +0.125 | +0.046 | -0.078 | 478 | 329 |
| 2016 | -0.247 | -0.230 | +0.017 | 224 | 394 |
| 2015 | -0.084 | -0.161 | -0.077 | 280 | 330 |
| 2014 | -0.061 | -0.119 | -0.058 | 324 | 354 |
| 2013 | -0.062 | -0.086 | -0.024 | 348 | 364 |
| 2012 | -0.005 | -0.026 | -0.021 | 299 | 348 |
| 2011 | -0.233 | -0.198 | +0.035 | 193 | 407 |
| 2010 | -0.048 | -0.103 | -0.055 | 289 | 328 |
| 2009 | -0.300 | -0.227 | +0.074 | 175 | 436 |
| 2008 | -0.259 | -0.187 | +0.072 | 232 | 465 |
| 2007 | -0.176 | -0.155 | +0.020 | 263 | 438 |
| 2006 | +0.027 | +0.028 | +0.001 | 367 | 381 |
| 2005 | -0.077 | -0.030 | +0.047 | 363 | 429 |
| 2004 | -0.026 | +0.010 | +0.035 | 319 | 392 |
| 2003 | +0.147 | -0.004 | -0.151 | 447 | 328 |
| 2002 | -0.051 | -0.065 | -0.014 | 316 | 369 |
| 2001 | +0.300 | +0.132 | -0.168 | 503 | 273 |
| 2000 | +0.097 | +0.166 | +0.069 | 540 | 471 |
| 1999 | +0.327 | +0.147 | -0.180 | 499 | 232 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M.Stafford | QB | 17 | 4,707 | 1 | — | 46 | 350.4 |
| K.Williams | RB | 17 | — | 1,252 | 281 | 13 | 263.3 |
| B.Corum | RB | 17 | — | 746 | 36 | 6 | 122.2 |
| P.Nacua | WR | 16 | — | 105 | 1,715 | 11 | 375.0 |
| D.Adams | WR | 14 | — | — | 789 | 14 | 222.9 |
| X.Smith | WR | 16 | — | — | 303 | 0 | 48.3 |
| C.Parkinson | TE | 14 | — | — | 408 | 8 | 129.8 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
32-18
64% WIN RATE
AWAY
27-24
53% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS50-19
PICKS FOR
72%
FOR ACCURACY
23-9
PICKS AGAINST
72%
AGAINST ACCURACY
101
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK LAR · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
23-15
60.5%
AWAY
19-12
61.3%
FAVORITE
35-24
59.3%
UNDERDOG
7-3
70.0%
S TIER
3-3
A+ TIER
6-2
A TIER
2-3
B TIER
19-16
C TIER
12-3
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR LAR · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
vs DET2-0
vs TB2-0
vs NO2-0
vs JAX2-0
vs BAL2-0
vs IND3-0
vs HOU2-0
vs NE2-0
vs MIN2-0
vs NYG3-0
vs WAS2-0
vs ARI8-3
vs SEA5-2
vs CHI2-1
vs ATL1-1
vs CAR1-1
vs TEN1-1
vs NYJ1-1
vs SF2-6
vs MIA0-2
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | SEA @ LARSUN 1:00 PM | SEA | FCST | 50% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | LAR @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | FCST | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | LAR @ SEAFRI 8:15 PM | SEA | B | 67% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | DAL @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | FCST | 74% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | LAR @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | FCST | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | KC @ LARTHU 8:15 PM | LAR | FCST | 80% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | GB @ LARWED 8:00 PM | LAR | A | 73% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | LAR @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | LAR | FCST | 80% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W9 | LAR @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | FCST | 72% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | LAC @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | FCST | 70% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W7 | LAR @ LVSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | FCST | 81% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | ARI @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | S | 85% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W5 | BUF @ LARMON 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | LAR @ PHISUN 1:00 PM | LAR | C | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | LAR @ DENSUN 8:20 PM | DEN | C | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | NYG @ LARMON 8:15 PM | LAR | S | 80% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | SF @ LARTHU 8:35 PM | LAR | B | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | ARI @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | S | 82% | ARI 20–37 LAR | WIN |
| 2025·W17 | LAR @ ATLMON 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 71% | LAR 24–27 ATL | LOSS |
| 2025·W16 | LAR @ SEATHU 8:15 PM | LAR | C | 58% | LAR 37–38 SEA | LOSS |
| 2025·W15 | DET @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 70% | DET 34–41 LAR | WIN |
| 2025·W14 | LAR @ ARISUN 4:25 PM | LAR | A+ | 78% | LAR 45–17 ARI | WIN |
| 2025·W13 | LAR @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | A | 75% | LAR 28–31 CAR | LOSS |
| 2025·W12 | TB @ LARSUN 8:20 PM | LAR | A+ | 74% | TB 7–34 LAR | WIN |
| 2025·W11 | SEA @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 66% | SEA 19–21 LAR | WIN |
| 2025·W10 | LAR @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 66% | LAR 42–26 SF | WIN |
| 2025·W9 | NO @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | S | 81% | NO 10–34 LAR | WIN |
| 2025·W7 | LAR @ JAXSUN 9:30 AM | LAR | B | 62% | LAR 35–7 JAX | WIN |
| 2025·W6 | LAR @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | C | 64% | LAR 17–3 BAL | WIN |
| 2025·W5 | SF @ LARTHU 8:15 PM | LAR | A | 72% | SF 26–23 LAR | LOSS |
| 2025·W4 | IND @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 62% | IND 20–27 LAR | WIN |
| 2025·W3 | LAR @ PHISUN 1:00 PM | PHI | C | 63% | LAR 26–33 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W2 | LAR @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | A+ | 79% | LAR 33–19 TEN | WIN |
| 2025·W1 | HOU @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 68% | HOU 9–14 LAR | WIN |
| 2024·W18 | SEA @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | A | 71% | SEA 30–25 LAR | LOSS |
| 2024·W17 | ARI @ LARSAT 8:15 PM | LAR | A+ | 73% | ARI 9–13 LAR | WIN |
| 2024·W16 | LAR @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | A | 73% | LAR 19–9 NYJ | WIN |
| 2024·W15 | LAR @ SFTHU 8:15 PM | LAR | C | 50% | LAR 12–6 SF | WIN |
| 2024·W14 | BUF @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | BUF | B | 69% | BUF 42–44 LAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W13 | LAR @ NOSUN 4:05 PM | NO | B | 61% | LAR 21–14 NO | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W12 | PHI @ LARSUN 8:20 PM | PHI | C | 60% | PHI 37–20 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W11 | LAR @ NESUN 1:00 PM | LAR | B | 65% | LAR 28–22 NE | WIN |
| 2024·W10 | MIA @ LARMON 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 69% | MIA 23–15 LAR | LOSS |
| 2024·W9 | LAR @ SEASUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 62% | LAR 26–20 SEA | WIN |
| 2024·W8 | MIN @ LARTHU 8:15 PM | LAR | C | 59% | MIN 20–30 LAR | WIN |
| 2024·W7 | LV @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 67% | LV 15–20 LAR | WIN |
| 2024·W5 | GB @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | GB | C | 60% | GB 24–19 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W4 | LAR @ CHISUN 1:00 PM | LAR | B | 63% | LAR 18–24 CHI | LOSS |
| 2024·W3 | SF @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | SF | B | 62% | SF 24–27 LAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W2 | LAR @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 67% | LAR 10–41 ARI | LOSS |
| 2024·W1 | LAR @ DETSUN 8:20 PM | DET | C | 61% | LAR 20–26 DET | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W18 | LAR @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | SF | B | 71% | LAR 21–20 SF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W17 | LAR @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | A | 72% | LAR 26–25 NYG | WIN |
| 2023·W16 | NO @ LARTHU 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 61% | NO 22–30 LAR | WIN |
| 2023·W15 | WAS @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 69% | WAS 20–28 LAR | WIN |
| 2023·W14 | LAR @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | B | 71% | LAR 31–37 BAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W13 | CLE @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | C | 60% | CLE 19–36 LAR | WIN |
| 2023·W12 | LAR @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 62% | LAR 37–14 ARI | WIN |
| 2023·W11 | SEA @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | SEA | B | 63% | SEA 16–17 LAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W9 | LAR @ GBSUN 1:00 PM | GB | B | 64% | LAR 3–20 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W8 | LAR @ DALSUN 1:00 PM | DAL | A | 72% | LAR 20–43 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W7 | PIT @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | PIT | C | 63% | PIT 24–17 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W6 | ARI @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 64% | ARI 9–26 LAR | WIN |
| 2023·W5 | PHI @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | PHI | B | 71% | PHI 23–14 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W4 | LAR @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | C | 50% | LAR 29–23 IND | WIN |
| 2023·W3 | LAR @ CINMON 8:15 PM | CIN | B | 68% | LAR 16–19 CIN | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W2 | SF @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | SF | A+ | 75% | SF 30–23 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W1 | LAR @ SEASUN 4:25 PM | SEA | B | 69% | LAR 30–13 SEA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W18 | LAR @ SEASUN 4:25 PM | SEA | B | 66% | LAR 16–19 SEA | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W17 | LAR @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | LAC | B | 70% | LAR 10–31 LAC | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W16 | DEN @ LARSUN 4:30 PM | LAR | C | 56% | DEN 14–51 LAR | WIN |
| 2022·W15 | LAR @ GBMON 8:15 PM | GB | B | 70% | LAR 12–24 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W14 | LV @ LARTHU 8:15 PM | LV | B | 69% | LV 16–17 LAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W13 | SEA @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | SEA | B | 66% | SEA 27–23 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W12 | LAR @ KCSUN 4:25 PM | KC | A+ | 77% | LAR 10–26 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W11 | LAR @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | C | 50% | LAR 20–27 NO | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W10 | ARI @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 61% | ARI 27–17 LAR | LOSS |
| 2022·W9 | LAR @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | C | 57% | LAR 13–16 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W8 | SF @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 61% | SF 31–14 LAR | LOSS |
| 2022·W6 | CAR @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | A+ | 71% | CAR 10–24 LAR | WIN |
| 2022·W5 | DAL @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | DAL | B | 61% | DAL 22–10 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W4 | LAR @ SFMON 8:15 PM | SF | C | 50% | LAR 9–24 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W3 | LAR @ ARISUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 60% | LAR 20–12 ARI | WIN |
| 2022·W2 | ATL @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 66% | ATL 27–31 LAR | WIN |
| 2022·W1 | BUF @ LARTHU 8:20 PM | BUF | B | 62% | BUF 31–10 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W18 | SF @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 57% | SF 27–24 LAR | LOSS |
| 2021·W17 | LAR @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | B | 62% | LAR 20–19 BAL | WIN |
| 2021·W16 | LAR @ MINSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | B | 54% | LAR 30–23 MIN | WIN |
| 2021·W15 | SEA @ LARTUE 7:00 PM | LAR | B | 60% | SEA 10–20 LAR | WIN |
| 2021·W14 | LAR @ ARIMON 8:15 PM | ARI | B | 56% | LAR 30–23 ARI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W13 | JAX @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | A+ | 67% | JAX 7–37 LAR | WIN |
| 2021·W12 | LAR @ GBSUN 4:25 PM | GB | B | 56% | LAR 28–36 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W10 | LAR @ SFMON 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 65% | LAR 10–31 SF | LOSS |
| 2021·W9 | TEN @ LARSUN 8:20 PM | LAR | C | 56% | TEN 28–16 LAR | LOSS |
| 2021·W8 | LAR @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | S | 75% | LAR 38–22 HOU | WIN |
| 2021·W7 | DET @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | S | 77% | DET 19–28 LAR | WIN |
| 2021·W6 | LAR @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | A+ | 67% | LAR 38–11 NYG | WIN |
| 2021·W5 | LAR @ SEATHU 8:20 PM | LAR | C | 51% | LAR 26–17 SEA | WIN |
| 2021·W4 | ARI @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 57% | ARI 37–20 LAR | LOSS |
| 2021·W3 | TB @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | C | 51% | TB 24–34 LAR | WIN |
| 2021·W2 | LAR @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | B | 53% | LAR 27–24 IND | WIN |
| 2021·W1 | CHI @ LARSUN 8:20 PM | LAR | B | 59% | CHI 14–34 LAR | WIN |
| 2020·W17 | ARI @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | B | 54% | ARI 7–18 LAR | WIN |
| 2020·W16 | LAR @ SEASUN 4:25 PM | SEA | B | 51% | LAR 9–20 SEA | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W15 | NYJ @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | S | 77% | NYJ 23–20 LAR | LOSS |
| 2020·W14 | NE @ LARTHU 8:20 PM | LAR | C | 54% | NE 3–24 LAR | WIN |
| 2020·W13 | LAR @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | LAR | C | 52% | LAR 38–28 ARI | WIN |
| 2020·W12 | SF @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 63% | SF 23–20 LAR | LOSS |
| 2020·W11 | LAR @ TBMON 8:15 PM | TB | C | 51% | LAR 27–24 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W10 | SEA @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | C | 56% | SEA 16–23 LAR | WIN |
| 2020·W8 | LAR @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | LAR | C | 55% | LAR 17–28 MIA | LOSS |
| 2020·W7 | CHI @ LARMON 8:15 PM | LAR | B | 55% | CHI 10–24 LAR | WIN |
| 2020·W6 | LAR @ SFSUN 8:20 PM | LAR | B | 55% | LAR 16–24 SF | LOSS |
| 2020·W5 | LAR @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | S | 66% | LAR 30–10 WAS | WIN |
| 2020·W4 | NYG @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | A+ | 66% | NYG 9–17 LAR | WIN |
| 2020·W3 | LAR @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | C | 51% | LAR 32–35 BUF | LOSS |
| 2020·W2 | LAR @ PHISUN 1:00 PM | LAR | B | 53% | LAR 37–19 PHI | WIN |
| 2020·W1 | DAL @ LARSUN 8:20 PM | LAR | B | 53% | DAL 17–20 LAR | WIN |