Jaguars vs Rams – Week 13 2021
JAX
LA
JAX
AWAY
7@37
LA BY 30
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 7, Los Angeles Rams 37.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 1 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 67%Our line: LA -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.206Net EPA / play+0.102
-0.088 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (8)
+0.118 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.025 (11)
44.0% (18)Offense success %46.4% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 30. Off by 24.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LA by 5.8. The market has LA at -14.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, JAX 7, LA 37. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -14.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 13, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 2.7 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 35, JAX 7 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Los Angeles Rams: JAX -0.206 against LA +0.102.
