2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ ATL – Week 13 2021
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
30@17
TB +13
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 66%Projected margin: -7.2
TB
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
-7.2
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 13. Off by 5.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -475 | Won · +$0.21 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6SEASON PPR
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES