Buccaneers vs Falcons – Week 13 2021
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
30@17
TB BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Atlanta Falcons 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Buccaneers, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: TB 66%Our line: TB -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.217Net EPA / play-0.180
+0.137 (2)Offense EPA / play-0.098 (28)
-0.080 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.082 (29)
49.4% (2)Offense success %40.4% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 13. Off by 7.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5 SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
255.6 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady5316 yd · 43 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Leonard Fournette812 yd · 8 TD
Ronald Jones428 yd · 4 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn180 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Godwin Jr.98 rec · 1103 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 5.5. The market has TB at -11.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 30, ATL 17. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -11.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 13, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 3.7 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.217 against ATL -0.180.
