Buccaneers vs Falcons – Week 5 2024
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
30@36
ATL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Atlanta Falcons 36.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Buccaneers, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 59%Our line: ATL -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -3.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.115Net EPA / play-0.027
+0.130 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (13)
+0.015 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.061 (27)
49.5% (3)Offense success %48.1% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 3.0. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 3.0. The market has ATL at -2.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, TB 30, ATL 36. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -2.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 1.4 above the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.115 against ATL -0.027.
