2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ ATL – Week 5 2024
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
30@36
ATL +6
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: ATL
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ATL 59%Projected margin: 0.7
ATL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ATL. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 6. Off by 5.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 14 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -142 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4SEASON PPR
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
| ATL@TBW7 2023 | ATL 16, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES