Colts vs Jaguars – Week 5 2024
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
34@37
JAX BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 5
2024 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 37.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.061Net EPA / play-0.149
-0.057 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.020 (18)
+0.004 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.129 (31)
40.2% (28)Offense success %41.5% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but JAX won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 6.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW6 2023 | IND 20, JAX 37 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW1 2023 | JAX 31, IND 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.7. The market has IND at +3.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, IND 34, JAX 37. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +3.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 5, the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 5 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.061 against JAX -0.149.
