Colts vs Jaguars – Week 6 2023
IND
JAX
IND
AWAY
20@37
JAX BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 37.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts, 4 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 69%Our line: JAX -6.7
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -6.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.019Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.035 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.070 (21)
-0.017 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.036 (16)
40.8% (24)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 17. Off by 10.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@INDW17 2025 | JAX 23, IND 17 | JAX | W |
| IND@JAXW14 2025 | IND 19, JAX 36 | JAX | W |
| JAX@INDW18 2024 | JAX 23, IND 26 | IND | W |
| IND@JAXW5 2024 | IND 34, JAX 37 | IND | L |
| JAX@INDW1 2023 | JAX 31, IND 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.7. The market has JAX at -4.0.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, IND 20, JAX 37. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -4.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 6, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 2.9 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 23, IND 17 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.019 against JAX -0.034.
