Commanders vs Falcons – Week 6 2023
WAS
ATL
WAS
AWAY
24@16
WAS BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 24, Atlanta Falcons 16.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders.
Model confidence: ATL 67%Our line: ATL -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -6.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.190Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.106 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (26)
+0.085 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (11)
41.0% (21)Offense success %41.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but WAS won. Projected margin was 6.0, the model overestimated by 14.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@ATLW4 2025 | WAS 27, ATL 34 | WAS | L |
| ATL@WASW17 2024 | ATL 24, WAS 30 | WAS | W |
| ATL@WASW12 2022 | ATL 13, WAS 19 | WAS | W |
| WAS@ATLW4 2021 | WAS 34, ATL 30 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 6.0. The market has ATL at -1.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 24, ATL 16. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -1.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 6, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 3.8 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, WAS 27, ATL 34 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Atlanta Falcons: WAS -0.190 against ATL -0.040.
