Patriots vs Raiders – Week 6 2023
NE
LV
NE
AWAY
17@21
LV BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 17, Las Vegas Raiders 21.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 Patriots, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 64%Our line: LV -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.136Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.191 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.097 (25)
-0.055 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
38.9% (28)Offense success %41.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 4.8. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5 SEASON PPR
145.7 SEASON PPR
119.9 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NEW5 2026 | LV 17, NE 45 | NE | W |
| LV@NEW1 2025 | LV 20, NE 13 | NE | L |
| NE@LVW15 2022 | NE 24, LV 30 | LV | W |
| LV@NEW3 2020 | LV 20, NE 36 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 4.8. The market has LV at -3.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, NE 17, LV 21. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the New England Patriots were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 4.2 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
New England Patriots, LV 17, NE 45 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Las Vegas Raiders: NE -0.136 against LV -0.037.
