Season Review · NFL Model Performance by Season

SEASON-BY-SEASON PERFORMANCE

7 SEASONS

SEASON	GAMES	CORRECT	ACCURACY	ALL-PICK PROFIT (1U, NO-VIG)
2020	256	172	67.5%	+$12.22
2021	272	170	62.7%	-$5.16
2022	271	178	66.2%	+$23.22
2023	272	176	64.7%	+$10.05
2024	272	189	69.5%	+$36.14
2025	272	185	68.3%	+$25.85
2026	93	55	59.8%	-$2.87

ACCURACY TREND

7 SEASONS

67.5%

62.7%

66.2%

64.7%

69.5%

68.3%

59.8%

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

CONFIDENCE TIER HIT RATES

1708 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

TIER S

83.5%

76-15 (91 picks)

TIER A+

75.2%

161-53 (214 picks)

TIER A

67.9%

74-35 (109 picks)

TIER B

65.7%

575-300 (875 picks)

TIER C

57.9%

239-174 (413 picks)

MODEL SPLITS

WHERE THE EDGE LIVES · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

HOME PICKS

67.2%

645-315

AWAY PICKS

64.7%

480-262

ATS RECORD

51.1%

854-817

AFC PICKS

66.5%

559-281

NFC PICKS

65.7%

566-296

DIVISION GAMES

65.0%

366-197

NON-DIVISION

66.2%

683-349

UNANIMOUS (3-0)

68.7%

886-403

SPLIT VOTE (2-1)

57.9%

239-174

THURSDAY

66.4%

77-39

FRIDAY

50.0%

3-3

SATURDAY

63.8%

30-17

SUNDAY

66.2%

928-473

MONDAY

63.7%

79-45

8 games on weekdays with fewer than 5 on record are not shown above.

MONTHLY ACCURACY

WHEN THE MODEL PEAKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

SEP

63.6%

234-134

OCT

66.5%

292-147

NOV

66.6%

249-125

DECBEST

68.4%

270-125

JANWORST

63.5%

80-46

MARGIN ACCURACY

OUR LINE VS ACTUAL MARGIN · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

MEAN ABS ERROR

10.1

POINTS

MEDIAN ERROR

8.3

POINTS

WITHIN 3 PTS

22.4%

OF PICKS

WITHIN 7 PTS

44.0%

OF PICKS

CONFIDENCE VS ACCURACY

DOES HIGHER CONFIDENCE = MORE WINS? · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

50-55%

55.0%

88-72

55-60%

64.3%

200-111

60-65%

64.6%

281-154

65-70%

67.8%

234-111

70-75%

73.8%

163-58

75%+

74.8%

122-41

ATS BY SPREAD RANGE

WHERE THE MODEL COVERS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

BIG DOG

(+7.5+)

4-5

44%

MED DOG

(+3.5-7)

52-29

64%

SM DOG

(+1-3)

123-99

55%

SM FAV

(-1 to -3)

208-195

52%

MED FAV

(-3.5 to -7)

290-287

50%

BIG FAV

(-7.5+)

177-202

47%

WEEKLY ACCURACY

7 SEASONS × 18 WEEKS

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

W14

W15

W16

W17

W18

2020

12-4

13-3

9-6

11-4

9-5

7-7

11-3

7-7

11-3

11-3

6-8

12-4

10-5

9-7

10-6

11-5

13-3

2021

7-9

11-5

12-4

11-5

12-4

10-4

11-2

7-8

8-6

7-6

8-7

9-6

9-5

10-4

9-7

10-6

11-5

8-8

2022

10-5

11-5

7-9

10-6

10-6

8-6

9-5

9-6

10-3

5-9

11-3

9-7

13-1

8-5

11-5

13-3

13-2

11-5

2023

10-6

11-5

11-5

13-3

9-5

11-4

6-7

11-5

11-3

8-6

8-6

11-5

9-4

6-9

10-6

11-5

12-4

8-8

2024

10-6

10-6

8-8

7-9

9-5

11-3

13-2

11-5

11-4

11-3

10-4

9-4

13-3

10-3

14-2

11-5

13-3

8-8

2025

11-5

13-3

11-5

10-5

7-7

8-7

13-2

10-3

9-5

10-4

14-1

10-4

10-6

10-4

11-5

9-7

10-6

9-7

2026

9-7

9-7

10-6

12-4

8-6

7-7

BEST PICKS

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINS

MATCHUP	TIER	CONF	OUR LINE	SCORE
BALCLE@BAL W18 2024	S	85%	-14.0	10-35
BUFNE@BUF W16 2024	S	85%	-13.8	21-24
HOULV@HOU W16 2025	S	86%	-14.6	21-23
INDTEN@IND W8 2025	S	86%	-14.3	14-38
BUFNYJ@BUF W17 2024	S	83%	-13.1	14-40

WORST MISSES

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LOSSES

MATCHUP	TIER	CONF	OUR LINE	SCORE
BUFBUF@NE W18 2024	S	83%	-13.1	16-23
GBCHI@GB W18 2024	S	82%	-12.2	24-22
BUFNE@BUF W5 2025	S	82%	-12.5	23-20
BUFBUF@JAX W9 2021	S	78%	-10.6	6-9
LAARI@LA W6 2026	S	81%	-11.7	18-16

BEST TEAMS TO PICK

MIN 5 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

HARDEST TEAMS TO PICK

MIN 5 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

METHODOLOGY

All stats computed from the graded pick ledger. Accuracy = correct picks / total picks. Profit is a flat 1u stake priced at the model’s spread-implied, vig-free moneyline, a fair price, not one a sportsbook offers. Full methodology →

HOW

METHODOLOGY

Model architecture deep dive

W-L

FULL RESULTS

Every pick on record

MVP

SEASON AWARDS

Data-driven superlatives

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?

Pro adds the Edge and the complete betting model.

GO PRO FULL LEDGER →

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SEASON-BY-SEASON PERFORMANCE

7 SEASONS

SEASON	GAMES	CORRECT	ACCURACY	ALL-PICK PROFIT (1U, NO-VIG)
2020	256	172	67.5%	+$12.22
2021	272	170	62.7%	-$5.16
2022	271	178	66.2%	+$23.22
2023	272	176	64.7%	+$10.05
2024	272	189	69.5%	+$36.14
2025	272	185	68.3%	+$25.85
2026	93	55	59.8%	-$2.87

ACCURACY TREND

7 SEASONS

67.5%

62.7%

66.2%

64.7%

69.5%

68.3%

59.8%

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

CONFIDENCE TIER HIT RATES

1708 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

TIER S

83.5%

76-15 (91 picks)

TIER A+

75.2%

161-53 (214 picks)

TIER A

67.9%

74-35 (109 picks)

TIER B

65.7%

575-300 (875 picks)

TIER C

57.9%

239-174 (413 picks)

MODEL SPLITS

WHERE THE EDGE LIVES · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

HOME PICKS

67.2%

645-315

AWAY PICKS

64.7%

480-262

ATS RECORD

51.1%

854-817

AFC PICKS

66.5%

559-281

NFC PICKS

65.7%

566-296

DIVISION GAMES

65.0%

366-197

NON-DIVISION

66.2%

683-349

UNANIMOUS (3-0)

68.7%

886-403

SPLIT VOTE (2-1)

57.9%

239-174

THURSDAY

66.4%

77-39

FRIDAY

50.0%

3-3

SATURDAY

63.8%

30-17

SUNDAY

66.2%

928-473

MONDAY

63.7%

79-45

8 games on weekdays with fewer than 5 on record are not shown above.

MONTHLY ACCURACY

WHEN THE MODEL PEAKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

SEP

63.6%

234-134

OCT

66.5%

292-147

NOV

66.6%

249-125

DECBEST

68.4%

270-125

JANWORST

63.5%

80-46

MARGIN ACCURACY

OUR LINE VS ACTUAL MARGIN · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

MEAN ABS ERROR

10.1

POINTS

MEDIAN ERROR

8.3

POINTS

WITHIN 3 PTS

22.4%

OF PICKS

WITHIN 7 PTS

44.0%

OF PICKS

CONFIDENCE VS ACCURACY

DOES HIGHER CONFIDENCE = MORE WINS? · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

50-55%

55.0%

88-72

55-60%

64.3%

200-111

60-65%

64.6%

281-154

65-70%

67.8%

234-111

70-75%

73.8%

163-58

75%+

74.8%

122-41

ATS BY SPREAD RANGE

WHERE THE MODEL COVERS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

BIG DOG

(+7.5+)

4-5

44%

MED DOG

(+3.5-7)

52-29

64%

SM DOG

(+1-3)

123-99

55%

SM FAV

(-1 to -3)

208-195

52%

MED FAV

(-3.5 to -7)

290-287

50%

BIG FAV

(-7.5+)

177-202

47%

WEEKLY ACCURACY

7 SEASONS × 18 WEEKS

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

W14

W15

W16

W17

W18

2020

12-4

13-3

9-6

11-4

9-5

7-7

11-3

7-7

11-3

11-3

6-8

12-4

10-5

9-7

10-6

11-5

13-3

2021

7-9

11-5

12-4

11-5

12-4

10-4

11-2

7-8

8-6

7-6

8-7

9-6

9-5

10-4

9-7

10-6

11-5

8-8

2022

10-5

11-5

7-9

10-6

10-6

8-6

9-5

9-6

10-3

5-9

11-3

9-7

13-1

8-5

11-5

13-3

13-2

11-5

2023

10-6

11-5

11-5

13-3

9-5

11-4

6-7

11-5

11-3

8-6

8-6

11-5

9-4

6-9

10-6

11-5

12-4

8-8

2024

10-6

10-6

8-8

7-9

9-5

11-3

13-2

11-5

11-4

11-3

10-4

9-4

13-3

10-3

14-2

11-5

13-3

8-8

2025

11-5

13-3

11-5

10-5

7-7

8-7

13-2

10-3

9-5

10-4

14-1

10-4

10-6

10-4

11-5

9-7

10-6

9-7

2026

9-7

9-7

10-6

12-4

8-6

7-7

BEST PICKS

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINS

MATCHUP	TIER	CONF	OUR LINE	SCORE
BALCLE@BAL W18 2024	S	85%	-14.0	10-35
BUFNE@BUF W16 2024	S	85%	-13.8	21-24
HOULV@HOU W16 2025	S	86%	-14.6	21-23
INDTEN@IND W8 2025	S	86%	-14.3	14-38
BUFNYJ@BUF W17 2024	S	83%	-13.1	14-40

WORST MISSES

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LOSSES

MATCHUP	TIER	CONF	OUR LINE	SCORE
BUFBUF@NE W18 2024	S	83%	-13.1	16-23
GBCHI@GB W18 2024	S	82%	-12.2	24-22
BUFNE@BUF W5 2025	S	82%	-12.5	23-20
BUFBUF@JAX W9 2021	S	78%	-10.6	6-9
LAARI@LA W6 2026	S	81%	-11.7	18-16

BEST TEAMS TO PICK

MIN 5 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

HARDEST TEAMS TO PICK

MIN 5 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025

METHODOLOGY

HOW

METHODOLOGY

Model architecture deep dive

W-L

FULL RESULTS

Every pick on record

MVP

SEASON AWARDS

Data-driven superlatives

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?

Pro adds the Edge and the complete betting model.

GO PRO FULL LEDGER →

GET ONE FREE PICK EVERY WEEK