2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
REVIEW
MODEL REVIEW
Season Review
6 seasons of picks analyzed. Every pick, every tier — the full audit trail.
1070-545
ALL-TIME RECORD
66.5%
HIT RATE
6
SEASONS
SEASON-BY-SEASON PERFORMANCE
6 SEASONS| SEASON | GAMES | CORRECT | ACCURACY | ALL-PICK PROFIT (1U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 172 | 67.5% | +$12.22 |
| 2021 | 272 | 170 | 62.7% | -$5.16 |
| 2022 | 271 | 178 | 66.2% | +$23.22 |
| 2023 | 272 | 176 | 64.7% | +$10.05 |
| 2024 | 272 | 189 | 69.5% | +$36.14 |
| 2025 | 272 | 185 | 68.3% | +$25.85 |
ACCURACY TREND
6 SEASONSCONFIDENCE TIER HIT RATES
1615 PICKSTIER S
82.8%
72-15 (87 picks)
TIER A+
75.1%
151-50 (201 picks)
TIER A
68.0%
68-32 (100 picks)
TIER B
65.9%
550-284 (834 picks)
TIER C
58.3%
229-164 (393 picks)
MODEL SPLITS
WHERE THE EDGE LIVESHOME PICKS
67.6%
611-293
AWAY PICKS
64.6%
459-252
ATS RECORD
51.5%
814-768
BEST WIN STREAK
13
CONSECUTIVE WINS
WORST LOSS STREAK
7
CONSECUTIVE LOSSES
AFC PICKS
66.7%
532-266
NFC PICKS
65.9%
538-279
DIVISION GAMES
65.6%
354-186
NON-DIVISION
66.0%
643-331
UNANIMOUS (3-0)
68.8%
841-381
SPLIT VOTE (2-1)
58.3%
229-164
THURSDAY
64.3%
9-5
SATURDAY
62.5%
20-12
SUNDAY
66.2%
819-418
MONDAY
65.9%
81-42
MONTHLY ACCURACY
WHEN THE MODEL PEAKSSEP
63.6%
204-117
OCT
67.5%
266-128
NOV
65.9%
247-128
DECBEST
68.6%
273-125
JANWORST
63.0%
80-47
MARGIN ACCURACY
PREDICTED VS ACTUAL POINT SPREADMEAN ABS ERROR
10.1
POINTS
MEDIAN ERROR
7.8
POINTS
WITHIN 3 PTS
22.0%
OF PICKS
WITHIN 7 PTS
46.4%
OF PICKS
CONFIDENCE VS ACCURACY
DOES HIGHER CONFIDENCE = MORE WINS?50-55%
55.0%
88-72
55-60%
64.6%
197-108
60-65%
64.6%
261-143
65-70%
69.1%
224-100
70-75%
73.9%
156-55
75%+
74.1%
109-38
ATS BY SPREAD RANGE
WHERE THE MODEL COVERSBIG DOG
(+7.5+)
4-5
44%
MED DOG
(+3.5-7)
48-28
63%
SM DOG
(+1-3)
118-91
56%
SM FAV
(-1 to -3)
198-182
52%
MED FAV
(-3.5 to -7)
273-272
50%
BIG FAV
(-7.5+)
173-190
48%
WEEKLY ACCURACY
6 SEASONS × 18 WEEKSW1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
W18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7
BEST PICKS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINS| MATCHUP | TIER | CONF | MARGIN | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 BALCLE@BAL W18 2024 | S | 85% | 14.7 | 10-35 |
 BUFNE@BUF W16 2024 | S | 85% | 14.0 | 21-24 |
 HOULV@HOU W16 2025 | S | 86% | 14.2 | 21-23 |
 INDTEN@IND W8 2025 | S | 86% | 13.5 | 14-38 |
| BUFNYJ@BUF W17 2024 | S | 83% | 13.3 | 14-40 |
WORST MISSES
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LOSSES| MATCHUP | TIER | CONF | MARGIN | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFBUF@NE W18 2024 | S | 83% | -12.7 | 16-23 |
 GBCHI@GB W18 2024 | S | 82% | 12.4 | 24-22 |
| BUFNE@BUF W5 2025 | S | 82% | 11.1 | 23-20 |
| BUFBUF@JAX W9 2021 | S | 78% | -13.3 | 6-9 |
 LANYJ@LA W15 2020 | S | 77% | 12.9 | 23-20 |
METHODOLOGY
All stats computed from live Supabase data. Accuracy = correct picks / total picks. Profit is calculated using actual closing odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and ESPN BET. Full methodology →
HOW
METHODOLOGY
Model architecture deep dive
W-L
FULL RESULTS
Every pick on record
MVP
SEASON AWARDS
Data-driven superlatives
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