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This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
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2026 season
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The model
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Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
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REVIEW
MODEL REVIEW

Season Review

We break down how our model has done every season since 2020: accuracy, tier hit rates, best picks, and worst misses across the full ledger.

1118-570-6
ALL-TIME RECORD
66.2%
HIT RATE
2020–2025 · EVERY PICK AS PUBLISHED

SEASON-BY-SEASON PERFORMANCE

7 SEASONS
SEASONGAMESCORRECTACCURACYALL-PICK PROFIT (1U, NO-VIG)
202025617267.5%+$12.22
202127217062.7%-$5.16
202227117866.2%+$23.22
202327217664.7%+$10.05
202427218969.5%+$36.14
202527218568.3%+$25.85
2026794861.5%-$0.28

ACCURACY TREND

7 SEASONS
67.5%
62.7%
66.2%
64.7%
69.5%
68.3%
61.5%
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

CONFIDENCE TIER HIT RATES

1694 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
TIER S
84.1%
74-14 (88 picks)
TIER A+
75.1%
160-53 (213 picks)
TIER A
68.9%
73-33 (106 picks)
TIER B
65.8%
573-298 (871 picks)
TIER C
58.0%
238-172 (410 picks)

MODEL SPLITS

WHERE THE EDGE LIVES · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
HOME PICKS
67.4%
640-309
AWAY PICKS
64.7%
478-261
ATS RECORD
51.3%
850-807
AFC PICKS
66.6%
554-278
NFC PICKS
65.9%
564-292
DIVISION GAMES
65.2%
364-194
NON-DIVISION
66.2%
678-346
UNANIMOUS (3-0)
68.9%
880-398
SPLIT VOTE (2-1)
58.0%
238-172
THURSDAY
66.1%
76-39
FRIDAY
50.0%
3-3
SATURDAY
63.8%
30-17
SUNDAY
66.5%
923-466
MONDAY
63.4%
78-45

8 games on weekdays with fewer than 5 on record are not shown above.

MONTHLY ACCURACY

WHEN THE MODEL PEAKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
SEP
63.6%
234-134
OCT
67.1%
285-140
NOV
66.6%
249-125
DECBEST
68.4%
270-125
JANWORST
63.5%
80-46

MARGIN ACCURACY

OUR LINE VS ACTUAL MARGIN · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
MEAN ABS ERROR
10.1
POINTS
MEDIAN ERROR
8.3
POINTS
WITHIN 3 PTS
22.4%
OF PICKS
WITHIN 7 PTS
43.9%
OF PICKS

CONFIDENCE VS ACCURACY

DOES HIGHER CONFIDENCE = MORE WINS? · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
50-55%
55.0%
88-72
55-60%
64.7%
200-109
60-65%
64.5%
278-153
65-70%
68.0%
234-110
70-75%
74.3%
162-56
75%+
74.8%
119-40

ATS BY SPREAD RANGE

WHERE THE MODEL COVERS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
BIG DOG
(+7.5+)
4-5
44%
MED DOG
(+3.5-7)
52-29
64%
SM DOG
(+1-3)
122-96
56%
SM FAV
(-1 to -3)
206-193
52%
MED FAV
(-3.5 to -7)
290-285
50%
BIG FAV
(-7.5+)
176-199
47%

WEEKLY ACCURACY

7 SEASONS × 18 WEEKS
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
W18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-6
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-6
8-7
9-6
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
2022
10-5
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
13-1
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-5
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7
2026
9-7
9-7
10-6
12-4
8-6

BEST PICKS

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINS
MATCHUPTIERCONFOUR LINESCORE
Baltimore RavensBALCLE@BAL W18 2024
S85%-14.010-35
Buffalo BillsBUFNE@BUF W16 2024
S85%-13.821-24
Houston TexansHOULV@HOU W16 2025
S86%-14.621-23
Indianapolis ColtsINDTEN@IND W8 2025
S86%-14.314-38
Buffalo BillsBUFNYJ@BUF W17 2024
S83%-13.114-40

WORST MISSES

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LOSSES
MATCHUPTIERCONFOUR LINESCORE
Buffalo BillsBUFBUF@NE W18 2024
S83%-13.116-23
Green Bay PackersGBCHI@GB W18 2024
S82%-12.224-22
Buffalo BillsBUFNE@BUF W5 2025
S82%-12.523-20
Buffalo BillsBUFBUF@JAX W9 2021
S78%-10.66-9
Los Angeles RamsLANYJ@LA W15 2020
S77%-9.923-20

BEST TEAMS TO PICK

MIN 5 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
Kansas City ChiefsKC68-1879.1%New York JetsNYJ7-277.8%Buffalo BillsBUF68-2275.6%Miami DolphinsMIA42-1475.0%Minnesota VikingsMIN43-1672.9%

HARDEST TEAMS TO PICK

MIN 5 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
Carolina PanthersCAR6-1331.6%Atlanta FalconsATL22-2250.0%Las Vegas RaidersLV17-1651.5%Arizona CardinalsARI22-1756.4%Cincinnati BengalsCIN27-1958.7%
METHODOLOGY
All stats computed from the graded pick ledger. Accuracy = correct picks / total picks. Profit is a flat 1u stake priced at the model’s spread-implied, vig-free moneyline, a fair price, not one a sportsbook offers. Full methodology →
HOW
METHODOLOGY
Model architecture deep dive
W-L
FULL RESULTS
Every pick on record
MVP
SEASON AWARDS
Data-driven superlatives
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