REVIEW
MODEL REVIEW
Season Review
We break down how our model has done every season since 2020: accuracy, tier hit rates, best picks, and worst misses across the full ledger.
1070-540-5
ALL-TIME RECORD
66.5%
HIT RATE
SEASON-BY-SEASON PERFORMANCE
6 SEASONS| SEASON | GAMES | CORRECT | ACCURACY | ALL-PICK PROFIT (1U, NO-VIG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 172 | 67.5% | +$12.22 |
| 2021 | 272 | 170 | 62.7% | -$5.16 |
| 2022 | 271 | 178 | 66.2% | +$23.22 |
| 2023 | 272 | 176 | 64.7% | +$10.05 |
| 2024 | 272 | 189 | 69.5% | +$36.14 |
| 2025 | 272 | 185 | 68.3% | +$25.85 |
ACCURACY TREND
6 SEASONSCONFIDENCE TIER HIT RATES
1615 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025TIER S
83.7%
72-14 (86 picks)
TIER A+
75.1%
151-50 (201 picks)
TIER A
68.0%
68-32 (100 picks)
TIER B
66.3%
550-280 (830 picks)
TIER C
58.3%
229-164 (393 picks)
MODEL SPLITS
WHERE THE EDGE LIVES · ALL-TIME 2020–2025HOME PICKS
67.7%
611-291
AWAY PICKS
64.8%
459-249
ATS RECORD
51.5%
814-768
AFC PICKS
66.8%
532-264
NFC PICKS
66.1%
538-276
DIVISION GAMES
65.8%
354-184
NON-DIVISION
66.2%
643-328
UNANIMOUS (3-0)
69.1%
841-376
SPLIT VOTE (2-1)
58.3%
229-164
THURSDAY
67.3%
74-36
FRIDAY
50.0%
3-3
SATURDAY
63.8%
30-17
SUNDAY
66.6%
880-442
MONDAY
64.4%
76-42
7 games on weekdays with fewer than 5 on record are not shown above.
MONTHLY ACCURACY
WHEN THE MODEL PEAKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025SEP
64.4%
206-114
OCT
67.1%
265-130
NOV
66.6%
249-125
DECBEST
68.4%
270-125
JANWORST
63.5%
80-46
MARGIN ACCURACY
OUR LINE VS ACTUAL MARGIN · ALL-TIME 2020–2025MEAN ABS ERROR
10.1
POINTS
MEDIAN ERROR
8.2
POINTS
WITHIN 3 PTS
22.4%
OF PICKS
WITHIN 7 PTS
44.0%
OF PICKS
CONFIDENCE VS ACCURACY
DOES HIGHER CONFIDENCE = MORE WINS? · ALL-TIME 2020–202550-55%
55.0%
88-72
55-60%
64.8%
197-107
60-65%
64.9%
261-141
65-70%
69.1%
224-100
70-75%
74.6%
156-53
75%+
74.1%
109-38
ATS BY SPREAD RANGE
WHERE THE MODEL COVERS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025BIG DOG
(+7.5+)
4-5
44%
MED DOG
(+3.5-7)
48-28
63%
SM DOG
(+1-3)
118-91
56%
SM FAV
(-1 to -3)
198-182
52%
MED FAV
(-3.5 to -7)
273-272
50%
BIG FAV
(-7.5+)
173-190
48%
WEEKLY ACCURACY
6 SEASONS × 18 WEEKSW1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
W18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-6
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-6
8-7
9-6
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
2022
10-5
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
13-1
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-5
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7
BEST PICKS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINS| MATCHUP | TIER | CONF | OUR LINE | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 BALCLE@BAL W18 2024 | S | 85% | -14.0 | 10-35 |
 BUFNE@BUF W16 2024 | S | 85% | -13.8 | 21-24 |
 HOULV@HOU W16 2025 | S | 86% | -14.6 | 21-23 |
 INDTEN@IND W8 2025 | S | 86% | -14.3 | 14-38 |
| BUFNYJ@BUF W17 2024 | S | 83% | -13.1 | 14-40 |
WORST MISSES
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LOSSES| MATCHUP | TIER | CONF | OUR LINE | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFBUF@NE W18 2024 | S | 83% | -13.1 | 16-23 |
 GBCHI@GB W18 2024 | S | 82% | -12.2 | 24-22 |
| BUFNE@BUF W5 2025 | S | 82% | -12.5 | 23-20 |
| BUFBUF@JAX W9 2021 | S | 78% | -10.6 | 6-9 |
 LANYJ@LA W15 2020 | S | 77% | -9.9 | 23-20 |
BEST TEAMS TO PICK
MIN 5 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
KC65-1878.3%
NYJ7-277.8%
MIA42-1376.4%BUF66-2175.9%
CHI21-775.0%HARDEST TEAMS TO PICK
MIN 5 PICKS · ALL-TIME 2020–2025
CAR6-1233.3%
ATL20-2050.0%
LV17-1651.5%
NYG7-653.8%
ARI22-1756.4%METHODOLOGY
All stats computed from the graded pick ledger. Accuracy = correct picks / total picks. Profit is a flat 1u stake priced at the model’s spread-implied, vig-free moneyline, a fair price, not one a sportsbook offers. Full methodology →
HOW
METHODOLOGY
Model architecture deep dive
W-L
FULL RESULTS
Every pick on record
MVP
SEASON AWARDS
Data-driven superlatives
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