2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
REVIEW
MODEL REVIEW
Season Review
6 seasons of picks analyzed. Every pick, every tier, every disagree play — the full audit trail.
1048-516
ALL-TIME RECORD
67.0%
HIT RATE
6
SEASONS
SEASON-BY-SEASON PERFORMANCE
6 SEASONS| SEASON | GAMES | CORRECT | ACCURACY | DISAGREE W-L | DISAGREE ROI | PROFIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 240 | 163 | 67.9% | 22-17 | +37.6% | +$82.86 |
| 2021 | 256 | 168 | 65.6% | 27-17 | +56.6% | +$82.07 |
| 2022 | 256 | 165 | 64.5% | 22-27 | +15.0% | +$73.37 |
| 2023 | 272 | 176 | 64.7% | 18-27 | +1.0% | +$75.08 |
| 2024 | 269 | 189 | 70.3% | 30-32 | +19.0% | +$108.35 |
| 2025 | 271 | 187 | 69.0% | 29-19 | +50.5% | +$102.9 |
ACCURACY TREND
6 SEASONSCUMULATIVE PROFIT
$100 FLAT BETS ON DISAGREE PLAYSCONFIDENCE TIER HIT RATES
1564 PICKSTIER S
82.5%
94-20 (114 picks)
TIER A+
72.0%
154-60 (214 picks)
TIER A
71.8%
56-22 (78 picks)
TIER B
66.7%
504-252 (756 picks)
TIER C
59.7%
240-162 (402 picks)
DISAGREE PLAYS
AGAINST VEGAS CONSENSUSRECORD
148-139
WIN RATE
51.6%
TOTAL PROFIT
+$83.44
MODEL SPLITS
WHERE THE EDGE LIVESHOME PICKS
68.0%
592-278
AWAY PICKS
65.7%
456-238
FAVORITE PICKS
70.5%
900-377
UNDERDOG PICKS ▲
51.6%
148-139
ATS RECORD
52.4%
803-729
BEST WIN STREAK
12
CONSECUTIVE WINS
WORST LOSS STREAK
6
CONSECUTIVE LOSSES
AFC PICKS
67.9%
529-250
NFC PICKS
66.1%
519-266
DIVISION GAMES
66.9%
349-173
NON-DIVISION
67.1%
634-311
SPLIT VOTE (2-1)
67.0%
1048-516
THURSDAY
64.3%
9-5
SATURDAY
62.5%
20-12
SUNDAY
66.9%
801-396
MONDAY
68.4%
80-37
MONTHLY ACCURACY
WHEN THE MODEL PEAKSSEPWORST
63.7%
172-98
OCT
68.8%
271-123
NOV
66.4%
249-126
DECBEST
69.1%
275-123
JAN
63.8%
81-46
MARGIN ACCURACY
PREDICTED VS ACTUAL POINT SPREADMEAN ABS ERROR
10.1
POINTS
MEDIAN ERROR
7.9
POINTS
WITHIN 3 PTS
21.7%
OF PICKS
WITHIN 7 PTS
45.9%
OF PICKS
CONFIDENCE VS ACCURACY
DOES HIGHER CONFIDENCE = MORE WINS?50-55%
58.7%
111-78
55-60%
62.7%
121-72
60-65%
70.8%
121-50
65-70%
73.1%
95-35
70-75%
73.6%
67-24
75%+
89.5%
68-8
ATS BY SPREAD RANGE
WHERE THE MODEL COVERSBIG DOG
(+7.5+)
3-2
60%
MED DOG
(+3.5-7)
48-22
69%
SM DOG
(+1-3)
120-92
57%
SM FAV
(-1 to -3)
193-172
53%
MED FAV
(-3.5 to -7)
271-255
52%
BIG FAV
(-7.5+)
168-186
47%
WEEKLY ACCURACY
6 SEASONS × 18 WEEKSW1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
W14
W15
W16
W17
W18
2020
12-4
10-6
10-5
9-5
8-6
11-3
8-6
11-3
11-3
7-7
12-4
10-5
9-7
11-5
11-5
13-3
2021
9-7
11-5
11-5
12-4
12-2
11-2
9-6
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
8-6
12-2
9-7
13-3
11-5
8-8
2022
10-6
1-0
7-9
8-8
11-5
9-5
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
10-4
9-7
12-3
8-5
11-5
12-4
13-2
11-5
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
14-2
9-5
11-4
5-8
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
2024
9-4
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
12-4
11-4
11-3
11-3
9-4
13-3
10-3
13-3
11-5
13-3
8-8
2025
12-4
13-3
11-5
10-5
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
10-6
10-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
10-6
BEST PICKS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINS| MATCHUP | TIER | CONF | MARGIN | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 BALCLE@BAL W18 2024 | S | 87% | 17.4 | 10-35 |
 BUFNE@BUF W16 2024 | S | 87% | 15.5 | 21-24 |
 INDTEN@IND W8 2025 | S | 85% | 15.2 | 14-38 |
 HOULV@HOU W16 2025 | S | 85% | 15.2 | 21-23 |
 JAXTEN@JAX W18 2025 | S | 85% | 14.8 | 7-41 |
WORST MISSES
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LOSSES| MATCHUP | TIER | CONF | MARGIN | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUFNE@BUF W5 2025 | S | 82% | 12.5 | 23-20 |
 TENHOU@TEN W11 2021 | S | 79% | 14.3 | 22-13 |
 ARITEN@ARI W5 2025 | S | 79% | 11.2 | 22-21 |
 GBCHI@GB W18 2024 | S | 78% | 11.8 | 24-22 |
 DETMIN@DET W9 2025 | S | 78% | 11.9 | 27-24 |
METHODOLOGY
All stats computed from live Supabase data. Accuracy = correct picks / total picks. Disagree ROI uses 1u = $100 flat bets on the model's moneyline when it disagrees with the Vegas favorite. Profit is calculated using actual closing odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and ESPN BET. Full methodology →
HOW
METHODOLOGY
Model architecture deep dive
W-L
FULL RESULTS
Every pick on record
MVP
SEASON AWARDS
Data-driven superlatives
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