CHI @ GB – Week 18 2024
CHI
GB
CHI
AWAY
24@22
CHI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 82%Our line: GB -12.2
GB
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-12.2
OUR LINE
-444
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.146
-0.082Offense EPA / play+0.079
+0.006Defense EPA / play-0.067
39.9%Offense success %44.9%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB S-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but CHI won. Projected margin was 12.2, the model overestimated by 14.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
COLD GAME
16°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +320 | -410 |
| Our fair price | +444 | -444 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
82%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
16°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
214.5 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3541 yd · 20 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift959 yd · 6 TD
C.Williams489 yd · 0 TD
R.Johnson150 yd · 6 TD
RECEIVING
D.Moore98 rec · 966 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen70 rec · 744 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
| GB@CHIW1 2023 | GB 38, CHI 20 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project GB by 12.2. The market has GB at -10.0.
The model projects 44.5 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, GB 16, CHI 22 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: CHI -0.088 against GB +0.146.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
