Bears vs Packers – Week 18 2024
CHI
GB
CHI
AWAY
24@22
CHI BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 24, Green Bay Packers 22.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 82% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 82%Our line: GB -12.2
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -12.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.146
-0.082 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
+0.006 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
39.9% (30)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB S-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but CHI won. Projected margin was 12.2, the model overestimated by 14.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
COLD GAME
16°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
16°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@GBW5 2026 | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI | L |
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project GB by 12.2. The market has GB at -10.0.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 24, GB 22. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 82% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -10.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 18, the Green Bay Packers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 3.0 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CHI 7, GB 31 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: CHI -0.088 against GB +0.146.
