2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ GB – Week 18 2024
CHI
GB
CHI
AWAY
24@22
CHI +2
FINAL · WEEK 18
2024 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER S
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 82%Projected margin: 12.4
GB
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
12.4
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB S-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but CHI won. Projected margin was 12.4 -- the model overestimated by 14.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.0 points.
COLD GAME
16°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -410 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
16°F
WIND
13 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
254.5SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
238.1SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
214.5SEASON PPR
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
| GB@CHIW1 2023 | GB 38, CHI 20 | GB | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES