Bears vs Packers – Week 5 2026
CHI
GB
CHI
AWAY
7@31
GB BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 7, Green Bay Packers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 4 Packers.
Model confidence: CHI 64%Our line: CHI -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.008Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.023 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.021 (18)
+0.015 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.039 (11)
46.1% (11)Offense success %40.7% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but GB won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 28.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
T.Bagent409 yd · 0 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs GB
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.9. The market has CHI at -1.5.
Green Bay Packers won, CHI 7, GB 31. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Chicago Bears at -1.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 5, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.3 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, GB 16, CHI 22 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Green Bay Packers: CHI +0.008 against GB +0.018.
