CHI @ GB – Week 5 2026
CHI
GB
CHI
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
GB
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 60%Projected margin: -0.3
CHI
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.082
+0.080Offense EPA / play+0.115
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.033
45.8%Offense success %47.7%
46.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
CHI is our C-tier play in CHI @ GB (Week 5, 2026). The model assigns 59.7% confidence and projects CHI by 0.3. Market spread sits at CHI +3.0.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
R.Odunze44 rec · 661 yd · 6 TD
L.Burden47 rec · 652 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,942PASSyds3,381
2,253RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@CHIW16 2026 | — | CHI | — |
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs GB
Who is favored in Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers?
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 0.3. The market has CHI at +3.0.
When do the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers game?
Chicago Bears, 16-22 in Week 16 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Chicago Bears or the Green Bay Packers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: CHI +0.061 against GB +0.082.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
