HOU @ TEN – Week 5 2026
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 80%Projected margin: -9.5
HOU
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-9.5
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.118Net EPA / play-0.260
-0.013Offense EPA / play-0.160
-0.131Defense EPA / play+0.100
41.3%Offense success %37.4%
38.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on HOU at 80% confidence.
EPA EDGE
HOU generates -0.013 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.100. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
HOU is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
HOU has won 4 of the last 5 meetings against TEN.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 9.5-point margin. Games projected by 7+ points have a strong cover rate historically.
Multiple signals align in HOU's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3041 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
W.Marks703 yd · 2 TD
N.Chubb506 yd · 3 TD
C.Stroud209 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins71 rec · 1117 yd · 6 TD
D.Schultz82 rec · 777 yd · 3 TD
J.Higgins41 rec · 525 yd · 6 TD
X.Hutchinson35 rec · 428 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,041PASSyds3,169
1,418RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@HOUW18 2026 | — | HOU | — |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
Who is favored in Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project HOU by 9.5. The market has HOU at -3.5.
When do the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans game?
Houston Texans, 16-13 in Week 11 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Houston Texans or the Tennessee Titans?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against TEN -0.260.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
