Texans vs Titans – Week 5 2026
HOU
TEN
HOU
AWAY
26@3
HOU BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 1 Titans.
Model confidence: HOU 70%Our line: HOU -7.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.228
+0.005 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.149 (31)
-0.043 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (25)
42.4% (18)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 7.0. Actual: 23. Off by 16.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs TEN
Our model takes Houston Texans at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 7.0. The market has HOU at -7.0.
Houston Texans won, HOU 26, TEN 3. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -7.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 5, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.7, 5.2 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 16, TEN 13 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.048 against TEN -0.228.
