2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ HOU – Week 12 2024
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
32@27
TEN +5
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: HOU
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 73%Projected margin: 7.8
HOU
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
7.8
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A+-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but TEN won. Projected margin was 7.8 -- the model overestimated by 12.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -375 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
135.7SEASON PPR
HOU
J.Mixon
RB
240.5SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
220.4SEASON PPR
N.Collins
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW15 2023 | HOU 19, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES