Titans vs Texans – Week 12 2024
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
32@27
TEN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 32, Houston Texans 27.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 73%Our line: HOU -8.4
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -8.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
-0.146Net EPA / play+0.015
-0.116 (30)Offense EPA / play-0.050 (22)
+0.030 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.065 (5)
39.9% (29)Offense success %38.8% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A+-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but TEN won. Projected margin was 8.4, the model overestimated by 13.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project HOU by 8.4. The market has HOU at -8.0.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 32, HOU 27. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 73% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -8.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 12, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 5.6 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 26, TEN 3 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: TEN -0.146 against HOU +0.015.
