2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ CAR – Week 12 2024
KC
CAR
KC
AWAY
30@27
KC +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 73%Projected margin: -7.4
KC
PICK SIDE
-11.0
SPREAD
-7.4
PROJ MARGIN
-487
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 3. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -487 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -700 | Won · +$0.21 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
187.2SEASON PPR
CAR
C.Hubbard
RB
241.6SEASON PPR
B.Young
QB
195.0SEASON PPR
A.Thielen
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@KCW9 2020 | CAR 31, KC 33 | KC | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES