Chiefs vs Panthers – Week 12 2024
KC
CAR
KC
AWAY
30@27
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 30, Carolina Panthers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs, 2 Panthers.
Model confidence: KC 73%Our line: KC -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -8.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.213
+0.070 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.053 (23)
+0.011 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.160 (32)
47.6% (6)Offense success %41.3% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 3. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
CAR
home_underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs CAR
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 8.1. The market has KC at -11.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 30, CAR 27. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -11.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 12, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 2.9 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, CAR 31, KC 33 in Week 9 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.059 against CAR -0.213.
