Broncos vs Raiders – Week 12 2024
DEN
LV
DEN
AWAY
29@19
DEN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 12
2024 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 29, Las Vegas Raiders 19.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 4 Raiders.
Model confidence: DEN 69%Our line: DEN -6.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -6.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.020 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (31)
-0.118 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.021 (19)
42.7% (17)Offense success %40.5% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 6.5. Actual: 10. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
| LV@DENW1 2023 | LV 17, DEN 16 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LV
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 6.5. The market has DEN at -6.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 29, LV 19. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -6.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 12, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 3.9 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against LV -0.164.
