2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ DEN – Week 10 2025
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
7@10
DEN +3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER S
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 82%Projected margin: 11.8
DEN
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
11.8
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 11.8. Actual: 3. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.26 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
No noteworthy trends
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
| LV@DENW1 2023 | LV 17, DEN 16 | LV | W |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES