Raiders vs Broncos – Week 10 2025
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
7@10
DEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 7, Denver Broncos 10.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 82%Our line: DEN -12.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -12.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.215 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.050 (10)
+0.024 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.088 (6)
37.6% (30)Offense success %44.2% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 12.4. Actual: 3. Off by 9.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
No noteworthy trends
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
| LV@DENW1 2023 | LV 17, DEN 16 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DEN by 12.4. The market has DEN at -9.5.
Denver Broncos won, LV 7, DEN 10. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -9.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 10, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 3.9 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: LV -0.240 against DEN +0.138.
