Ravens vs Vikings – Week 10 2025
BAL
MIN
BAL
AWAY
27@19
BAL BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 27, Minnesota Vikings 19.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: BAL 64%Our line: BAL -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.034 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (28)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (4)
44.6% (13)Offense success %42.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 8. Off by 3.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@BALW9 2021 | MIN 31, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs MIN
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 5.0. The market has BAL at -4.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 27, MIN 19. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -4.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 10, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 4.3 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, MIN 31, BAL 34 in Week 9 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against MIN -0.016.
