2026 NFL AWARDS ODDS

Most Valuable Player — QB team-wins + production. The model weights team success heavily, the way the voters do.

1

Josh Allen

QB · BUF · 10.3 proj wins · 389 PPR

7.5%

2

Jared Goff

QB · DET · 10.2 proj wins · 311 PPR

4.6%

3

Jalen Hurts

QB · PHI · 10.1 proj wins · 327 PPR

4.6%

4

Lamar Jackson

QB · BAL · 9.9 proj wins · 306 PPR

3.6%

5

Bo Nix

QB · DEN · 9.8 proj wins · 299 PPR

3.3%

6

Matthew Stafford

QB · LA · 9.9 proj wins · 256 PPR

2.9%

7

Ty Simpson ᴿ

QB · LA · 9.9 proj wins · 252 PPR

2.9%

8

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · 9.1 proj wins · 314 PPR

2.4%

9

Drake Maye

QB · NE · 9.3 proj wins · 289 PPR

2.4%

10

Shane Buechele

QB · BUF · 10.3 proj wins · 148 PPR

2.1%

11

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · 9.0 proj wins · 284 PPR

2.0%

12

Jordan Love

QB · GB · 9.5 proj wins · 230 PPR

2.0%

Top projected non-QB offensive producer (production-dominant).

1

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · DET · 10.2 proj wins · 303 PPR

5.0%

2

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · DET · 10.2 proj wins · 294 PPR

4.3%

3

Puka Nacua

WR · LA · 9.9 proj wins · 288 PPR

3.7%

4

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · CIN · 7.9 proj wins · 309 PPR

3.7%

5

Bijan Robinson

RB · ATL · 8.4 proj wins · 297 PPR

3.3%

6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · SEA · 9.3 proj wins · 260 PPR

2.0%

7

De'Von Achane

RB · MIA · 7.1 proj wins · 268 PPR

1.6%

8

Jonathan Taylor

RB · IND · 9.0 proj wins · 247 PPR

1.6%

9

James Cook

RB · BUF · 10.3 proj wins · 227 PPR

1.4%

10

Justin Jefferson

WR · MIN · 8.8 proj wins · 238 PPR

1.3%

11

Kyren Williams

RB · LA · 9.9 proj wins · 218 PPR

1.1%

12

CeeDee Lamb

WR · DAL · 7.8 proj wins · 240 PPR

1.1%

Best projected offensive rookie by draft-capital-scaled production.

1

Fernando Mendoza ᴿ

QB · LV · 6.1 proj wins · 259 PPR

30.0%

2

Ty Simpson ᴿ

QB · LA · 9.9 proj wins · 252 PPR

24.7%

3

Drew Allar ᴿ

QB · PIT · 8.4 proj wins · 215 PPR

8.9%

4

Cade Klubnik ᴿ

QB · NYJ · 6.1 proj wins · 195 PPR

5.1%

5

Cole Payton ᴿ

QB · PHI · 10.1 proj wins · 155 PPR

1.7%

6

Taylen Green ᴿ

QB · CLE · 8.1 proj wins · 154 PPR

1.6%

7

Athan Kaliakmanis ᴿ

QB · WAS · 8.4 proj wins · 154 PPR

1.6%

8

Behren Morton ᴿ

QB · NE · 9.3 proj wins · 154 PPR

1.6%

9

Garrett Nussmeier ᴿ

QB · KC · 9.1 proj wins · 154 PPR

1.6%

10

Carnell Tate ᴿ

WR · TEN · 6.0 proj wins · 137 PPR

1.0%

11

Jordyn Tyson ᴿ

WR · NO · 8.2 proj wins · 136 PPR

1.0%

12

Jeremiyah Love ᴿ

RB · ARI · 7.5 proj wins · 133 PPR

0.9%

Awards are derivedfrom the same model that powers our team and player projections — not a separate guess. MVP weights projected team wins (heavily, the way voters do) plus QB production; OPOY and OROY weight projected production. On a 2020–2024 backtest the model’s top-3 identifies the actual winner more often than a production-only chalk board (14/15 vs 12/15), driven by MVP. Directional on a small sample — a model read, not a lock. Methodology →