AWARDS
2026 AWARDS ODDS
2026 NFL AWARDS ODDS
MVP, Offensive Player of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year probabilities, derived from the model's projected team wins and player production, not a betting board. Pure model.
7.6%
MVP FAVORITE
Allen
LEADS MVP
Odds bars share one scale across all three boards below (a full bar is the single most likely outcome on this page, 29.7%), so a wide-open race reads as short bars and a real favorite reads as a long one.
MVP
MODEL ODDS · 2026Most Valuable Player, QB team-wins + production. The model weights team success heavily, the way the voters do.
1
QB · BUF · 10.3 proj wins · 389 PPR
7.6%
2
QB · DET · 10.2 proj wins · 311 PPR
4.7%
3
QB · PHI · 10.1 proj wins · 327 PPR
4.6%
4
QB · BAL · 9.9 proj wins · 306 PPR
3.7%
5
QB · DEN · 9.8 proj wins · 299 PPR
3.3%
6
QB · LAR · 9.9 proj wins · 256 PPR
2.9%
7
QB · KC · 9.1 proj wins · 314 PPR
2.4%
8
QB · NE · 9.3 proj wins · 289 PPR
2.4%
9
QB · JAX · 9.0 proj wins · 284 PPR
2.0%
10
QB · GB · 9.5 proj wins · 230 PPR
2.0%
11
QB · TB · 8.8 proj wins · 298 PPR
1.8%
12
QB · SF · 9.1 proj wins · 259 PPR
1.8%
Offensive Player of the Year
MODEL ODDS · 2026Top projected non-QB offensive producer (production-dominant).
1
RB · DET · 10.2 proj wins · 303 PPR
5.1%
2
WR · DET · 10.2 proj wins · 294 PPR
4.4%
3
WR · LAR · 9.9 proj wins · 288 PPR
3.7%
4
WR · CIN · 7.9 proj wins · 309 PPR
3.7%
5
RB · ATL · 8.4 proj wins · 297 PPR
3.3%
6
WR · SEA · 9.3 proj wins · 260 PPR
2.1%
7
RB · MIA · 7.1 proj wins · 268 PPR
1.6%
8
RB · IND · 9.0 proj wins · 247 PPR
1.6%
9
RB · BUF · 10.3 proj wins · 227 PPR
1.4%
10
WR · MIN · 8.8 proj wins · 238 PPR
1.3%
11
RB · LAR · 9.9 proj wins · 218 PPR
1.1%
12
WR · DAL · 7.8 proj wins · 240 PPR
1.1%
Offensive Rookie of the Year
MODEL ODDS · 2026Best projected offensive rookie by draft-capital-scaled production.
1
QB · LV · 6.1 proj wins · 251 PPR
29.7%
2
QB · LAR · 9.9 proj wins · 244 PPR
24.6%
3
QB · PIT · 8.4 proj wins · 208 PPR
9.0%
4
QB · NYJ · 6.1 proj wins · 189 PPR
5.3%
5
QB · PHI · 10.1 proj wins · 151 PPR
1.8%
6
QB · CLE · 8.1 proj wins · 149 PPR
1.8%
7
WR · TEN · 6.0 proj wins · 129 PPR
1.0%
8
WR · NO · 8.2 proj wins · 128 PPR
0.9%
9
WR · PHI · 10.1 proj wins · 124 PPR
0.9%
10
WR · CLE · 8.1 proj wins · 123 PPR
0.8%
11
WR · NYJ · 6.1 proj wins · 121 PPR
0.8%
12
WR · CLE · 8.1 proj wins · 118 PPR
0.7%
NOTE: MVP and OPOY are ranked among each team’s real projected starters (QB1, and RB1/RB2, WR1/WR2, TE1/TE2 for the committee positions) by depth chart, so a backup projected off raw production can’t out-rank a starter. OROY has no starter requirement, since a rookie rarely opens the season as QB1, so it stays production-ranked; rookies who share the exact same projected line (no real usage history yet) are collapsed to one row.
HOW THESE ARE BUILT
Awards are derivedfrom the same model that powers our team and player projections, not a separate guess. MVP weights projected team wins (heavily, the way voters do) plus QB production; OPOY and OROY weight projected production. On a 2020–2024 backtest the model’s top-3 identifies the actual winner more often than a production-only chalk board (14/15 vs 12/15), driven by MVP. Directional on a small sample, a model read, not a lock. Methodology →
QUESTIONS
They fall out of a Monte Carlo over our projected team wins and player production, a pure model, no sportsbook futures used as input. MVP is team-wins + QB production; OPOY and OROY are production-driven.
We don't project defensive players or injury-return narratives with enough signal to be honest, so we leave those awards off rather than post a weak model.
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