CIRCA
CIRCA SURVIVOR 2026 · WEEK 6
CIRCA SURVIVOR
The largest survivor contest in the country, 20 legs with Thanksgiving and Christmas as their own weeks. Circa’s published numbers, attributed and dated, next to our win probability for this week’s games and the market’s. Our projection, not a bet.
2,910
ENTRIES ALIVE · OF 25,017
$25.0M
PRIZE POOL · NO RAKE
15
LEGS LEFT INCL. HOLIDAYS
THE SHORT ANSWER
Circa Survivor 2026 has 2,910 of 25,017 entries still alive going into Week 6, with a $25,017,000 prize pool, according to Circa Sports (checked Oct 15, 2026).
Our safest Week 6 team is the San Francisco 49ers at 82% to win, against 79% in the betting market. 408 of the 2,910 live entries (14%) can still use them.
15 legs are left from here, including the Thanksgiving leg (picks due 4 p.m. PT Wednesday, November 25) and the Christmas leg (due 4 p.m. PT Thursday, December 24). A loss or a tie eliminates an entry.
WHERE THE CONTEST STANDS
UPDATED OCT 15, 2026
2,910
ALIVE FOR WEEK 6
3,062
OUT IN WEEK 5
51.3%
OF THE FIELD OUT LAST LEG
$25,017,000
PRIZE UP FOR GRABS
Source: Circa Sports, Circa Survivor (results post and prize pool). Share of the field out is our arithmetic on Circa’s counts: 3,062 of the 5,972 entries alive going into Week 5. Entries: 25,017, which at $1,000each with no rake is the pool. We link to Circa’s files and do not host them.
WEEK 6: OUR ODDS NEXT TO THE FIELD
Each game’s favorite, ranked by our win probability. Market % is the betting market’s own number with each book’s margin removed (additive method). Still available is Circa's count of live entries that have not used the team yet. It caps how many entries could pick them, not how many will.
| Pick | Game | Our win % | Market % | Still available | Pick locks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | vs WAS | 82% | 79% | 408 (14%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Los Angeles Rams | vs ARI | 81% | — | 2,827 (97.1%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 New England Patriots | vs NYJ | 81% | — | 2,727 (93.7%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Kansas City Chiefs | vs LAC | 75% | — | 855 (29.4%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Buffalo Bills | at LV | 75% | — | 2,653 (91.2%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Indianapolis Colts | vs TEN | 73% | — | 2,806 (96.4%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | vs HOU | 73% | — | 1,032 (35.5%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Baltimore Ravens | at CLE | 69% | — | 1,746 (60%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 New York Giants | vs NO | 64% | — | 2,883 (99.1%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | at TB | 64% | — | 2,158 (74.2%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Denver Broncos | vs SEA | 64% | — | 2,858 (98.2%) | At kickoff (Thu) |
 Green Bay Packers | vs DAL | 64% | — | 2,834 (97.4%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Atlanta Falcons | vs CHI | 60% | — | 2,909 (100%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
 Philadelphia Eagles | vs CAR | 58% | — | 2,391 (82.2%) | Sat 4 p.m. PT |
Favorites only; an underdog is a legal Circa pick. No game this week is a holiday leg. Full slate with Future Value: Week 6 survivor picks.
WHICH TEAMS THE FIELD STILL HAS
All 32 teams, scarcest first, from Circa’s Week 6 Team Availability: how many of the 2,910 live entries have not used each team. A team few entries still have is a team few of them can pick.
SF408 · 14%KC855 · 29.4%JAX1,032 · 35.5%
MIN1,616 · 55.5%
HOU1,682 · 57.8%BAL1,746 · 60%
DET2,025 · 69.6%PIT2,158 · 74.2%
CIN2,211 · 76%PHI2,391 · 82.2%
SEA2,570 · 88.3%BUF2,653 · 91.2%
LV2,653 · 91.2%NE2,727 · 93.7%IND2,806 · 96.4%LAR2,827 · 97.1%
CHI2,833 · 97.4%GB2,834 · 97.4%DEN2,858 · 98.2%
NYJ2,866 · 98.5%
CAR2,869 · 98.6%NYG2,883 · 99.1%
DAL2,888 · 99.2%
CLE2,900 · 99.7%ATL2,909 · 100%
ARI2,910 · 100%
LAC2,910 · 100%
MIA2,910 · 100%
NO2,910 · 100%
TB2,910 · 100%
TEN2,910 · 100%
WAS2,910 · 100%Source: Circa Sports, Week 6 Team Availability (PDF), header row only. The PDF also lists every entry; we do not reproduce those.
THE 20 LEGS, AND THE TWO THAT TRAP PEOPLE
Weeks 1 to 18 are 18 legs. Thanksgiving and Christmas each add one more, decided before that week’s Sunday slate, so a full run needs 20 different teams and a spare for each holiday.
| Leg | Games | Picks due |
|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving Eve/Day/Black Friday leg | Thursday and Friday, November 26-27 (Week 12) | 4 p.m. PT Wednesday, November 25 |
| Christmas leg | Thursday and Friday, December 24-25 (Week 16) | 4 p.m. PT Thursday, December 24 |
| Every other week | The week’s games | 4 p.m. PT Saturday, or the selected game’s kickoff if earlier |
Dates and deadlines per Circa’s contest page. The games in each holiday leg leave that week’s main slate.
THE RULES, AS CIRCA PUBLISHES THEM
- ENTRY
- $1,000 per entry, up to 10 entries per person. Registration closed Sep 12, 2026, so 2026 is full.
- PICKS
- One NFL team a week to win outright, no point spread. Each team can be used once per entry. Up to 20 picks: Weeks 1 to 18 plus the Thanksgiving and Christmas legs.
- ELIMINATION
- An entry is out when its team loses or ties. The contest runs until one entry remains. If more than one entry is left after all 20 legs, or every remaining entry loses the same week, the pool is split equally among the entries that made a pick that leg.
- RAKE
- None. The last entry standing takes the whole pool: $20,000,000 guaranteed, more when entries top that, as they did this year ($25,017,000).
- WHERE TO ENTER
- Sign-up is in person at a Nevada location, and weekly picks can only be submitted from inside Nevada, at a Circa kiosk or in the Nevada app. Out-of-state players use a Nevada-based proxy.
Source: Circa Sports contest page and its official rules (PDF). Circa’s rules govern; this is a summary.
PRO · CIRCA PLANNER
PLAN YOUR CIRCA PATH
Tell the planner which teams each of your entries has used and it solves the remaining legs, holiday legs included: our pick from the teams you have left, the book’s favorite, a path that spends your teams in the right order and the odds of surviving it, with every pick graded when the game goes final. Circa’s 20 legs and tie rule are built in, and so are up to three entries.
HOW TO READ AVAILABILITY
Availability is a supply number. When only 14% of the live field can still use a team, that team is a pick few entries can make, however safe it looks. When 100% can, nothing about the field tells you anything. It says nothing about who will actually pick what this week, and we do not claim a pick percentage.
The useful read is the combination. Our win probability tells you how likely a team is to survive the week. The market’s number is a second opinion, usually a little sharper than ours. Availability tells you how crowded the road will be if that team wins. With 2,910 entries left, a team that wins and was used by few of them is worth more than the same win from a team everyone still has.
QUESTIONS
2,910 of 25,017 entries are alive going into Week 6, per Circa Sports' latest results post (checked Oct 15, 2026). The prize pool is $25,017,000.
Each entry picks one NFL team a week to win outright and can use each team once. A loss or a tie eliminates the entry. There are up to 20 picks, Weeks 1 to 18 plus a Thanksgiving leg and a Christmas leg, and the last entry standing wins the whole pool with no rake.
They are extra picks decided before that week's Sunday slate. The Thanksgiving leg covers the Thanksgiving Eve, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday games, with picks due 4 p.m. PT Wednesday, November 25. The Christmas leg is due 4 p.m. PT Thursday, December 24. The games in each leg leave the week's main slate, so an entry needs a spare team for each.
It is the number and percentage of remaining entries that have not yet used a team. 100% means every live entry can still pick the team; a low number means most of the field has already spent it. It is a ceiling on how many entries could pick a team, not a prediction of how many will.
Our model's safest Week 6 team is the San Francisco 49ers at 82% to win. The safest team is not always the right one in Circa: with 15 legs left, including two holiday legs, spending your best teams early can leave a thin board in December.
No. Registration closed at 2 p.m. PT on Saturday, September 12, 2026, during the first NFL week. Entries had to be registered in person at a Nevada location.
Only through a Nevada-based proxy service that registers and submits picks on your behalf. Weekly picks can only be submitted from inside Nevada, at a Circa sportsbook kiosk or in the Nevada app, and the app's geolocation blocks logging in from out of state and handing the account to a proxy.
NoPunt is not affiliated with Circa Sports. Entries, prize pool and availability are Circa’s published figures, dated above, and the Circa page is the source of record. Our win probabilities are projections, not bets. Must be 21 or older and physically in Nevada to submit picks. Past results. Not financial advice.