Chargers vs Buccaneers – Week 13 2026
LAC
TB
LAC
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 13 · 2026 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Buccaneers over the Chargers at 64% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: TB 64%Our line: TB -4.9
80% range around our line: LAC by 12 to TB by 22. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the TB game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
TB —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -4.9
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
45%
DIFFERENCE
+19%
| SPORTSBOOK | LAC | TB | TB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -135 | +114 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 13 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.150Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.207 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
-0.057 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (7)
37.8% (29)Offense success %40.9% (23)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
TB is our early forecast in LAC @ TB (Week 13, 2026). The model assigns 64% confidence and projects TB by 4.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LACW15 2024 | TB 40, LAC 17 | TB | W |
| LAC@TBW4 2020 | LAC 31, TB 38 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability. The margin models project TB by 4.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 64% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 40, LAC 17 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LAC -0.150 against TB -0.031.
