LAC @ TB – Week 13 2026
LAC
TB
LAC
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 13 · 2026 SEASON
TB
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: TB 58%Projected margin: -0.3
TB
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.024Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.083Defense EPA / play+0.013
43.1%Offense success %42.4%
41.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
TB is our early forecast in LAC @ TB (Week 13, 2026). The model assigns 57.8% confidence and projects TB by 0.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | TB market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3727 yd · 26 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
K.Vidal643 yd · 3 TD
O.Hampton545 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert498 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey66 rec · 789 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen81 rec · 777 yd · 4 TD
Q.Johnston51 rec · 735 yd · 8 TD
O.Gadsden49 rec · 664 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,727PASSyds3,693
1,686RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LACW15 2024 | TB 40, LAC 17 | TB | W |
| LAC@TBW4 2020 | LAC 31, TB 38 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs TB
Who is favored in Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 58% win probability. The margin models project TB by 0.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?
Week 13 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 40-17 in Week 15 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Chargers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
