2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ TB – Week 4 2020
LAC
TB
LAC
AWAY
31@38
TB +7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 58%Projected margin: 3.1
TB
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
3.1
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 7. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -331 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
245.1SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
165.3SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LACW15 2024 | TB 40, LAC 17 | TB | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES