Chargers vs Buccaneers – Week 4 2020
LAC
TB
LAC
AWAY
31@38
TB BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 58%Our line: TB -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -2.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.001Net EPA / play+0.170
+0.027 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.119 (6)
+0.026 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (6)
43.2% (24)Offense success %45.9% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 7. Off by 4.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@LACW15 2024 | TB 40, LAC 17 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 2.9. The market has TB at -7.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, LAC 31, TB 38. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -7.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 4, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 4.4 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 40, LAC 17 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LAC +0.001 against TB +0.170.
