2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ CIN – Week 4 2020
JAX
CIN
JAX
AWAY
25@33
CIN +8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 54%Projected margin: -1.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-1.9
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but CIN won. Projected margin was 1.9 -- the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +101 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1SEASON PPR
CIN
Tee Higgins
WR
194.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Boyd
WR
192.6SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW2 2025 | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN | W |
| CIN@JAXW13 2023 | CIN 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@CINW4 2021 | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES