CIN @ JAX – Week 13 2023
CIN
JAX
CIN
AWAY
34@31
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 69%Our line: JAX -6.8
JAX
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.8
OUR LINE
-226
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.044Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.010Offense EPA / play-0.070
+0.034Defense EPA / play-0.036
44.0%Offense success %42.1%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but CIN won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +410 | -550 |
| Our fair price | +226 | -226 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
81%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7 SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow2309 yd · 15 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1034 yd · 9 TD
Chase Brown179 yd · 0 TD
Jake Browning127 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase100 rec · 1216 yd · 7 TD
Tyler Boyd67 rec · 667 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW2 2025 | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2021 | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.8. The market has JAX at -10.0.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, JAX 27, CIN 31 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CIN -0.044 against JAX -0.034.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
