2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ JAX – Week 13 2023
CIN
JAX
CIN
AWAY
34@31
CIN +3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 69%Projected margin: 5.6
JAX
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but CIN won. Projected margin was 5.6 -- the model overestimated by 8.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -550 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
Joe Mixon
RB
267.0SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
262.7SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
147.2SEASON PPR
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW2 2025 | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2021 | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES