Bengals vs Jaguars – Week 13 2023
CIN
JAX
CIN
AWAY
34@31
CIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 31.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals.
Model confidence: JAX 69%Our line: JAX -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.044Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.010 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.070 (21)
+0.034 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.036 (16)
44.0% (10)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but CIN won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
61°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@CINW4 2026 | JAX 22, CIN 17 | JAX | W |
| JAX@CINW2 2025 | JAX 27, CIN 31 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2021 | JAX 21, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| JAX@CINW4 2020 | JAX 25, CIN 33 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 6.8. The market has JAX at -10.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 34, JAX 31. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -10.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 13, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 5.2 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 22, CIN 17 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CIN -0.044 against JAX -0.034.
