Lions vs Saints – Week 13 2023
DET
NO
DET
AWAY
33@28
DET BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 33, New Orleans Saints 28.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 4 Saints.
Model confidence: DET 65%Our line: DET -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.093Net EPA / play+0.086
+0.064 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.014 (13)
-0.029 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (5)
46.1% (6)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 5.2. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@DETW1 2026 | NO 30, DET 31 | DET | W |
| NO@DETW4 2020 | NO 35, DET 29 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs NO
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.2. The market has DET at -4.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 33, NO 28. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -4.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 13, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 2.3 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, NO 30, DET 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.093 against NO +0.086.
