DET @ NO – Week 13 2023
DET
NO
DET
AWAY
33@28
DET BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: DET 65%Our line: DET -5.2
DET
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.2
OUR LINE
-186
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.093Net EPA / play+0.086
+0.064Offense EPA / play-0.014
-0.029Defense EPA / play-0.100
46.1%Offense success %42.1%
42.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 5.2. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -198 | +164 |
| Our fair price | -186 | +186 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
330.9 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
289.1 SEASON PPR
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
242.1 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff4575 yd · 30 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1015 yd · 13 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs945 yd · 10 TD
Craig Reynolds179 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown119 rec · 1515 yd · 10 TD
Sam LaPorta86 rec · 889 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.2. The market has DET at -4.0.
The model projects 45.2 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 35, DET 29 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.093 against NO +0.086.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
