CLE @ LA – Week 13 2023
CLE
LA
CLE
AWAY
19@36
LA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 60%Our line: LA -3.3
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.3
OUR LINE
-148
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.141Offense EPA / play+0.039
-0.186Defense EPA / play-0.009
38.9%Offense success %44.7%
35.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 17. Off by 13.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 |
| Our fair price | +148 | -148 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
63%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
No noteworthy trends
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Joe Flacco1616 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Jerome Ford813 yd · 4 TD
Kareem Hunt411 yd · 9 TD
Pierre Strong291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper72 rec · 1250 yd · 5 TD
David Njoku81 rec · 882 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 3.3. The market has LA at -3.5.
The model projects 44.9 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: CLE +0.045 against LA +0.048.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
