Browns vs Rams – Week 13 2023
CLE
LA
CLE
AWAY
19@36
LA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 19, Los Angeles Rams 36.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Browns, 1 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 60%Our line: LA -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.141 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (9)
-0.186 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (22)
38.9% (29)Offense success %44.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 17. Off by 13.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
No noteworthy trends
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 3.3. The market has LA at -3.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, CLE 19, LA 36. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 13, the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.9, 5.4 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: CLE +0.045 against LA +0.048.
