Chiefs vs Packers – Week 13 2023
KC
GB
KC
AWAY
19@27
GB BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 19, Green Bay Packers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: KC 65%Our line: KC -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -5.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.107Net EPA / play+0.056
+0.021 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (6)
-0.086 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (24)
43.7% (12)Offense success %44.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but GB won. Projected margin was 5.2, the model overestimated by 13.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
COLD GAME
31°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
31°F
WIND
9 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs GB
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 5.2. The market has KC at -5.5.
Green Bay Packers won, KC 19, GB 27. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -5.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 3.0 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, GB 7, KC 13 in Week 9 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.107 against GB +0.056.
