Seahawks vs Cowboys – Week 13 2023
SEA
DAL
SEA
AWAY
35@41
DAL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 35, Dallas Cowboys 41.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: DAL 76%Our line: DAL -9.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -9.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.035Net EPA / play+0.220
+0.016 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.106 (3)
+0.051 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.114 (4)
43.9% (11)Offense success %47.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 9.5. Actual: 6. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@SEAW3 2020 | DAL 31, SEA 38 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 9.5. The market has DAL at -9.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, SEA 35, DAL 41. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -9.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 13, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 1.1 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, DAL 31, SEA 38 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: SEA -0.035 against DAL +0.220.
