SEA @ DAL – Week 13 2023
SEA
DAL
SEA
AWAY
35@41
DAL BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 76%Our line: DAL -9.5
DAL
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.5
OUR LINE
-316
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.035Net EPA / play+0.220
+0.016Offense EPA / play+0.106
+0.051Defense EPA / play-0.114
43.9%Offense success %47.4%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 9.5. Actual: 6. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +380 | -500 |
| Our fair price | +316 | -316 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
76%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
SEA
Geno Smith
QB
227.3 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
225.4 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
202.4 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Geno Smith3624 yd · 20 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Kenneth Walker III905 yd · 8 TD
Zach Charbonnet462 yd · 1 TD
Geno Smith155 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf66 rec · 1114 yd · 8 TD
Tyler Lockett79 rec · 894 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@SEAW3 2020 | DAL 31, SEA 38 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DAL by 9.5. The market has DAL at -9.5.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, DAL 31, SEA 38 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: SEA -0.035 against DAL +0.220.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
