Colts vs Titans – Week 13 2023
IND
TEN
IND
AWAY
31@28
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 31, Tennessee Titans 28.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 61%Our line: IND -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.019Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.035 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.047 (18)
-0.017 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (23)
40.8% (24)Offense success %39.7% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 3.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW6 2026 | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND | L |
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs TEN
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 3.7. The market has IND at -1.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 31, TEN 28. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -1.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 13, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 2.7 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 26, IND 20 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.019 against TEN -0.055.
