Titans vs Colts – Week 8 2025
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
14@38
IND BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 14, Indianapolis Colts 38.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 86% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans, 3 Colts.
Model confidence: IND 86%Our line: IND -14.3
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -15.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -14.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.160 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
+0.100 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
37.4% (31)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 14.3. Actual: 24. Off by 9.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW6 2026 | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND | L |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 86% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project IND by 14.3. The market has IND at -15.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, TEN 14, IND 38. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 86% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -15.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 15.5 points.
In Week 8, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 0.6 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 26, IND 20 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: TEN -0.260 against IND +0.068.
