Browns vs Patriots – Week 8 2025
CLE
NE
CLE
AWAY
13@32
NE BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 13, New England Patriots 32.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: NE 72%Our line: NE -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -7.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.094Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.190 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.158 (1)
-0.096 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.047 (11)
34.5% (32)Offense success %48.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 19. Off by 11.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CLEW6 2022 | NE 38, CLE 15 | NE | W |
| CLE@NEW10 2021 | CLE 7, NE 45 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NE by 7.9. The market has NE at -7.0.
New England Patriots won, CLE 13, NE 32. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 5.8 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 38, CLE 15 in Week 6 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: CLE -0.094 against NE +0.205.
