CLE @ NE – Week 8 2025
CLE
NE
CLE
AWAY
13@32
NE BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: NE 72%Our line: NE -7.9
NE
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.9
OUR LINE
-258
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.094Net EPA / play+0.205
-0.190Offense EPA / play+0.158
-0.096Defense EPA / play-0.047
34.5%Offense success %48.4%
40.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 19. Off by 11.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +300 | -380 |
| Our fair price | +258 | -258 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4 SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8 SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
S.Sanders1400 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Q.Judkins827 yd · 7 TD
D.Sampson175 yd · 0 TD
S.Sanders169 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
H.Fannin72 rec · 731 yd · 6 TD
J.Jeudy50 rec · 602 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CLEW6 2022 | NE 38, CLE 15 | NE | W |
| CLE@NEW10 2021 | CLE 7, NE 45 | NE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NE by 7.9. The market has NE at -7.0.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 38, CLE 15 in Week 6 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: CLE -0.094 against NE +0.205.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
