2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ NO – Week 8 2025
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
23@3
TB +20
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 70%Projected margin: -4.7
TB
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
-4.7
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 20. Off by 15.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW4 2023 | TB 26, NO 9 | TB | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES