Packers vs Steelers – Week 8 2025
GB
PIT
GB
AWAY
35@25
GB BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 35, Pittsburgh Steelers 25.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: GB 60%Our line: GB -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.082Net EPA / play+0.007
+0.115 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.025 (16)
+0.033 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (18)
47.7% (5)Offense success %44.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 10. Off by 6.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@PITW10 2023 | GB 19, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| PIT@GBW4 2021 | PIT 17, GB 27 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs PIT
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 3.4. The market has GB at -3.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 35, PIT 25. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 1.1 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, GB 19, PIT 23 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against PIT +0.007.
