Steelers vs Packers – Week 4 2021
PIT
GB
PIT
AWAY
17@27
GB BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Green Bay Packers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 3 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 64%Our line: GB -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.127
-0.074 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.134 (3)
+0.016 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (16)
39.1% (31)Offense success %48.6% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 10. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@PITW8 2025 | GB 35, PIT 25 | GB | W |
| GB@PITW10 2023 | GB 19, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.9. The market has GB at -6.5.
Green Bay Packers won, PIT 17, GB 27. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -6.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 4, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 3.4 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 35, PIT 25 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: PIT -0.090 against GB +0.127.
