2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ GB – Week 4 2021
PIT
GB
PIT
AWAY
17@27
GB +10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: GB 64%Projected margin: 4.9
GB
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
4.9
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 10. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -276 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1SEASON PPR
GB
Davante Adams
WR
344.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
333.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@PITW8 2025 | GB 35, PIT 25 | GB | W |
| GB@PITW10 2023 | GB 19, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES