NFL WEEK 4 2021 PREDICTIONS & PICKS
16 GAMESUPDATED JUL 4, 2026
THE SHORT ANSWER
NoPunt went 11-5 straight up in Week 4 2021.
The most confident pick, the Buffalo Bills at 74%, won 40-0.
Our most confident Week 4 pick is the Buffalo Bills over the Houston Texans, at 74% win probability.
4 of 16 games on the Week 4 slate are effective coin flips, under 55% win probability.
WHAT WE GOT WRONG
Our highest-probability miss this week: the New Orleans Saints at 72% win probability lost 21-27.
The C-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 2-2 (50%) against a 58% all-time rate.
PROEvery pick's read, side, tier, win probability, spread, is free. The Edge (the games we flag as bets) and Kelly sizing are Pro.
FILTER
QUESTIONS
Our safest Week 4 2021 pick is the Buffalo Bills over the Houston Texans, at 74% win probability.
4 of 16 games in Week 4 2021 are effective coin flips on our model, under 55% win probability.
NoPunt's model picks every game of Week 4, 2021, tier-graded from S (strongest) to C, with a win probability, predicted margin and spread for each. See the full slate on this page.
NoPunt went 11-5 straight up in Week 4 2021.
Our highest-probability miss this week: the New Orleans Saints at 72% win probability lost 21-27. The C-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 2-2 (50%) against a 58% all-time rate.