Seahawks vs 49ers – Week 4 2021
SEA
SF
SEA
AWAY
28@21
SEA BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 28, San Francisco 49ers 21.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 2 49ers.
Model confidence: SEA 52%Our line: SEA -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -0.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.003Net EPA / play+0.120
+0.031 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (7)
+0.028 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
43.2% (21)Offense success %45.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 7. Off by 6.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson3113 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Rashaad Penny749 yd · 6 TD
Alex Collins411 yd · 2 TD
Chris Carson232 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tyler Lockett73 rec · 1175 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@SEAW5 2026 | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs SF
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 0.7. The market has SEA at +2.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 28, SF 21. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 52% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at +2.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 4.1 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 32, SEA 29 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: SEA +0.003 against SF +0.120.
