Seahawks vs 49ers – Week 11 2024
SEA
SF
SEA
AWAY
20@17
SEA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 20, San Francisco 49ers 17.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 4 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 70%Our line: SF -7.0
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -7.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.018Net EPA / play+0.028
-0.030 (19)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (10)
-0.012 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
43.9% (16)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but SEA won. Projected margin was 7.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@SEAW5 2026 | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
| SEA@SFW14 2023 | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project SF by 7.0. The market has SF at -6.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 20, SF 17. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -6.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 11, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 3.7 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 32, SEA 29 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: SEA -0.018 against SF +0.028.
