2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SEA @ SF – Week 11 2024
SEA
SF
SEA
AWAY
20@17
SEA +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
SF
HOME
TIER A
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 70%Projected margin: 6.3
SF
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
6.3
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF A-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but SEA won. Projected margin was 6.3 -- the model overestimated by 9.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -265 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SEA
G.Smith
QB
266.0SEASON PPR
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
253.0SEASON PPR
D.Metcalf
WR
191.2SEASON PPR
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
| SEA@SFW14 2023 | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF | W |
| SF@SEAW12 2023 | SF 31, SEA 13 | SF | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES