Browns vs Saints – Week 11 2024
CLE
NO
CLE
AWAY
14@35
NO BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 14, New Orleans Saints 35.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns, 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 64%Our line: NO -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.201Net EPA / play-0.101
-0.183 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (25)
+0.017 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (24)
37.0% (32)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 21. Off by 16.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@CLEW16 2022 | NO 17, CLE 10 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 4.7. The market has NO at +1.0.
New Orleans Saints won, CLE 14, NO 35. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +1.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 11, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 2.0 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 17, CLE 10 in Week 16 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New Orleans Saints: CLE -0.201 against NO -0.101.
