2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ MIA – Week 11 2024
LV
MIA
LV
AWAY
19@34
MIA +15
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIA 67%Projected margin: 4.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
4.3
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 15. Off by 10.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -425 | Won · +$0.32 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
137.4SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@MIAW11 2023 | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW3 2021 | MIA 28, LV 31 | LV | W |
| MIA@LVW16 2020 | MIA 26, LV 25 | MIA | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES