Raiders vs Dolphins – Week 11 2024
LV
MIA
LV
AWAY
19@34
MIA BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 19, Miami Dolphins 34.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Raiders, 1 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 67%Our line: MIA -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.017
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.039 (21)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (9)
40.5% (26)Offense success %44.3% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 15. Off by 9.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@LVW1 2026 | MIA 13, LV 27 | MIA | L |
| LV@MIAW11 2023 | LV 13, MIA 20 | MIA | W |
| MIA@LVW3 2021 | MIA 28, LV 31 | LV | W |
| MIA@LVW16 2020 | MIA 26, LV 25 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.8. The market has MIA at -8.0.
Miami Dolphins won, LV 19, MIA 34. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -8.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 11, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, MIA 13, LV 27 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: LV -0.164 against MIA -0.017.
