Bengals vs Chargers – Week 11 2024
CIN
LAC
CIN
AWAY
27@34
LAC BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 27, Los Angeles Chargers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: LAC 60%Our line: LAC -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.053Net EPA / play+0.100
+0.090 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (12)
+0.037 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (7)
47.2% (9)Offense success %42.0% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 7. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CINW13 2021 | LAC 41, CIN 22 | CIN | L |
| LAC@CINW1 2020 | LAC 16, CIN 13 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.3. The market has LAC at -1.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, CIN 27, LAC 34. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -1.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 11, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 2.0 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 41, CIN 22 in Week 13 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: CIN +0.053 against LAC +0.100.
