2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ LAC – Week 11 2024
CIN
LAC
CIN
AWAY
27@34
LAC +7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LAC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LAC 60%Projected margin: 1.7
LAC
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
1.7
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 7. Off by 5.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -110 | Won · +$0.87 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CINW13 2021 | LAC 41, CIN 22 | CIN | L |
| LAC@CINW1 2020 | LAC 16, CIN 13 | LAC | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES